Opinion | History takes another surprise turn
By Tom Fowdy
The President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, has presumedly died in a helicopter accident, alongside Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. The Helicopter crashed near Varzaqan, a mountainous forested region to the northwest of the country. After hours of searching, rescuers reached the site to find it completely burned and stated it was unlikely anyone survived.
The sudden death of Iran's President, although not critical to the state given ultimate power and authority held by Ayatollah Khomeini, ushers in an undoubted period of uncertainty for a region rocked by extreme tensions and war. It goes without question that in the days and weeks to come many theories and allegations will be pushed regarding the cause of the accident, although it is impossible to give any reason at this time.
The obvious temptation will be for some to blame a certain country, a certain country that has a track record of pulling off surreal assassinations, not least in Iran itself, or even managing to once infiltrate North Korea of all places to kill Syrian engineers. The truth is of course we will never know the exact details, and therefore attention must be given to the political "choice" of explanation in the Iranian state gives. If there's one thing the past two decades have taught us, it is that the decision to "blame" someone, or to not blame someone, publicly in international relations is always a political decision, and rarely ever hinges on impartial truth.
That's why for example, Saddam Hussein became opportunistically linked to the 9/11 terror attacks despite there being no serious evidence of this, but Saudi Arabia was not. That's why, the UK waited three years to decide that China was "responsible" for a hack on the British electoral register. Or, more relevant, that's why Iran decided to actually play down and dismiss Israel's retaliatory attack on their facility following their missile and drone bombardment in April. Politics is problematic precisely because it is dictated by interest, rather than by truth, and therefore allegations are rarely ever made in good faith, and how Tehran responds to this event does not necessarily coincide with the "truth" of what happened.
Many people fear of course, will this event add more fuel to the fire, and bring more instability to the Middle East? What happens if the Iranian government feels it has lost legitimacy through the accident and there is public rebellion? How do they vent that? Will it upset the factional balance between Iran's hardliners and reformers? Again, these outcomes cannot be guessed. However, I will go out on a whim and say that given true decision-making in the country rests with the Ayatollah, we might be able to assume there will be no immediate changes to the political status quo. Moreover, I also think based on Iran's previous foreign policy behavior and the "rational choice theory" of international relations as a whole, that Tehran will not see the intrinsic value in directly using this to attack a certain other country.
If anything, recent history shows Iran has engaged in retaliatory behavior, but has stopped short of direct war in instances whereby Israel and the US have killed its high-level officials. It is easy to dismiss Iran as an unhinged religious fundamentalist regime because of its aggressive rhetoric but there is little evidence in practice that it is ultimately irrational as such. On the other hand, history also shows us that what is deemed to be a "rational choice" in the mind of the beholder, is not necessarily the "correct" choice. Some of the greatest and most backfiring decisions of all time were made with this thing we call "reason", which may have seemed strategically necessary or inevitable, but ultimately self-destructive. What we deem as "reason" is ultimately limited by human perception and misjudgment, after all.
In this case, this case, it remains entirely to be seen what the consequences of this event will bring to the Middle East, to international relations, or to the world, if any at all. Accidents happen, but what follows next will be a decision made by human agency, whether it be in Tel Aviv, Washington D.C, or Tehran itself. We can only wait and see what happens.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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