Opinion | Does the Israel conflict herald the end of Ukraine?
By Tom Fowdy
The shock breakout of the Israeli-Gaza war and the all-embracing media coverage that has followed it has marginalised attention on an already existing conflict, the Ukraine War. Now in its 20th month, the Western mood for Kyiv was already starting to waver as opposition to funding it in the US Congress has gained momentum, with Kyiv's much-hyped "Counteroffensive" having failed to yield significant results since June. Despite non-stop wall-to-wall propaganda exaggerating Russian losses and proclaiming that Ukraine would liberate all of its territory, that hasn't happened and quite frankly, it doesn't look like it will.
Now, Zelensky has a competitor, who poses to draw publicity and aid away from him. The United States and its allies have reacted to Hamas' attacks with large-scale condemnation and pledged military and financial support for Tel Aviv. Logically speaking, this means priorities must shift, because as it is the supply of weapons, air defence systems and munitions have already been painfully stretched with everything pouring into Kiev. As outrage and moral concern about Ukraine also fades, this also in turn creates political space for Western politicians to downplay it and readjust with "the heat off them."
Of course, the United States will not openly or officially admit this, should such a shift occur. Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby naturally professed that the US will support "both" Israel and Ukraine at once, and sure we'll probably hear some of this "long as it takes" rhetoric chucked in there too. However, it's rarely as straightforward as that, not least when you get down to the practical, organisation, financial and supply-based realities of doing so. If weapons and money are going to Israel they aren't going to Ukraine, therefore mathematically speaking you need more of it, and where's that going to come from?
And herein is where things get messy, are the US and Western publics prepared to tolerate even more taxpayer money being tossed at respective two conflicts? Sure it doesn't impact the ordinary man, but the change of situation creates an opening for politicians to latch onto this sentiment and oppose it under the guise of supporting one over the other, namely Israel. We're already seeing this from Republican Senators such as Josh Hawley, who argued aid should be sent to Tel Aviv, not Kyiv. He's not speaking in a vacuum, Republican opposition to funding Ukraine (especially on the right) is growing accordingly, with the Trumpian faction having brought down speaker McCarthy and chopped Ukraine aid out of the budget bill.
Israel thus provides the benefit moral ruse to argue in favour of downplaying Ukraine as a matter of urgency. We must understand that unconditional support for Ukraine across Western countries was premised on an extreme moral stigma that effectively silenced the opposition in every way possible. I'm well aware even from a personal level that even daring to oppose Ukraine for the course of 2022 and 2023 brought upon you widespread condemnation, moral disdain and ostracism. The challenging of the media paradigm and the overwhelming "outrage" of Hamas' attacks somewhat leaves this burden, distracts people, and therefore opens space for debate that was previously not tolerated.
Even without considering this factor, it is arguable the shift away from Ukraine was already underway. It is not for example, the case that Kiev was on its way to a total victory and therefore desperately needed to make the final push, so therefore a worthy sacrifice is it? The reality is that Ukraine has in fact received overwhelming Western military support in the form of hundreds of tanks, armoured vehicles, missiles and artillery, amongst the other things, in what was intended and "according to plan" meant to be an offensive that completely isolated Crimea and therefore paved the way for Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war on terms favourable to itself.
That hasn't happened. Kyiv caused a small dent in Russian lines at an overwhelming cost, and when put into proper perspective Ukraine has not made any serious gains on the battlefield for approximately 11 months, meaning the outcome of the war in 2023 has been a de-facto stalemate with only small adjustments on the frontlines on both sides. The claim of Ukraine's inevitable and crushing victory was always exaggerated, so the question is are Western countries going to keep ploughing their military stocks into this as at an overwhelming cost with no guarantee of success? Kyiv has lost momentum, but not only that, they've now lost the agenda too. This means the Israel conflict could ultimately spell time for Ukraine to leave the stage, having been baited into a long protracted war it was told, and claimed, it could certainly win on zero-sum terms.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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