Opinion | The India Delusion

By Tom Fowdy

As a row between India and Canada continues over the alleged assassination of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil New Delhi has threatened Ottawa with the expulsion of 41 diplomats. This comes despite Trudeau moderating his comments, saying subserviently that Canada seeks a "constructive" relationship with India, and previously having expressed that they were an "important Indo-Pacific" Partner. The fact that Ottawa is acting extremely self-restrained on its ties with New Delhi, despite the severity of the incident, only shows its obedience to US strategic goals. It goes without saying that had China committed such an atrocity, more accurately been accused of such, the response would not have been so muted. One can only imagine the joint condemnation by the US joined by its allies, a joint sanctions coordination effort, amongst explosive wall-to-wall media coverage.

That's because as stated, the fundamental strategic goal is to utilize India as a counterweight to China as part of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" which seeks to transform it into an economic and military bulwark to drain Beijing's manufacturing capacity, supply chain dominance and ultimately encircle it. To this end, the ultranationalist BJP leadership of India under Narendra Modi has capitalized on Anti-China sentiment in order to promote the rise of his country, deliberately having escalated the border dispute and promoting crackdowns on Chinese companies and participating in the US led-Quad, although it is nonetheless doing so out of pure self-interest as opposed to being a "true" alliance of sorts. Despite this, in courting India, the West has repeatedly praised it as "the world's largest" democracy and framed their relationship in ideological terms.

However, the reality is that under Modi there has been a rapid deterioration of democratic freedoms and a swing towards authoritarian centralization. In doing so, the BJP has created an increasingly ultranationalist (some critics say fascist) state that wantonly persecutes religious minorities, including Muslims & Sikhs, is eliminating freedom of the press (including a crackdown on one company accused of being "funded" by China, as well as a raid against the BBC), prosecuting the opposition, pressuring western social media companies, routinely bullies and coerces its neighbors, and of course is accused of committing assassinations on foreign soil. All of this is ironic given this is what the West accuses China of doing.

While there have been efforts to sweep this under the rug, as is per for human rights abusers the US supports, the firestorm of negative publicity and this incident is in fact making it impossible to do so. Even without the coordinated resources of the US State Department, self-appointed experts, think tanks, and input agenda-pushing of politicians (all of which aim at China), it has been observed in Pew surveys that Western public opinion of India is starting to dwindle. When acts of backlash happen, such as Sikhs in Glasgow forcibly refusing an Indian diplomat access to a temple in Glasgow, they tend to be difficult to ignore irrespectively.

As such, the depiction of New Delhi as a massive opportunity and risk-free alternative to China just doesn't hold water, not least when they're willing to forcibly raid the companies and institutions of any country that remotely criticizes them in opportunistic related tax probes. This is going to stretch the credibility of Western politicians to minimize the respective value conflict at stake with New Delhi in the name of Realpolitik, not least because all of it stands as a reminder that India isn't really on the Western "team", it is prepared to partner with the west in the fulfillment of certain interests but in practice it could not be made clear that they do their own thing, in pursuit of their own goals, and their treatment of Canada is a reminder they are not a "loyal" ally as might be naively assumed.

It is my comprehension that should India rise to the same level of prominence and influence as China, it will be far less restrained, far more dangerous, and far more aggressive on every level. This is what the West, amidst the anti-China hysteria, don't realize. Despite lasting disputes over the South China Sea and Taiwan, Beijing is extremely reserved in its relationship with the West and chooses to be cautious. It has taken a lot of Western aggression against it without actually responding, seeking above all to emphasize diplomacy and stability. Modi's India, however, is a revisionist ultra-nationalist state that manifests great, great anger in its population. The West should stop buying into the India delusion.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

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