Opinion | The Middle East's Moment of Reckoning
By Tom Fowdy
On Saturday morning, Islamist group Hamas made the decision to launch a historically unprecedented attack and invasion of Israeli territory. Catching Tel Aviv completely off guard in what has been described as a catastrophic failure, Hamas proceeded to bombard the country with thousands of missiles before breaking through the Gaza strip fence. Here, they ransacked neighbouring towns and villages, taking hostages and killing innocents. Israel has responded by formally declaring war, marking the first time in 50 years it has done so, and the first time since the foundation of the state that its own territory was occupied.
Anyone who paid close attention to Middle East affairs might have seen it coming, that's because there have been regional and global political shifts which have permitted it to happen. First of all, the United States fundamentally destabilized the region by pursuing the "Abraham Accords", an inherently flawed peace process wherein Washington attempted to shoehorn Arab states into recognising Israel without securing any actual concessions or changes from Israel itself, thus normalising the unjust status quo as opposing to promoting a serious "two state solution".
It is quite obvious that the fundamental goal of the accords was not in fact to promote peace at all, but to pave the way for US disengagement from the region by diplomatically isolating Iran and its proxies. However, this "false peace" created a jarring contradiction as Israel continued to oppress and attack Palestinians in the west bank, as well as limiting the options of Palestine factions accordingly to make their voice known, thus resorting to an increased probability of violence. This, combined with an erroneous hardline approach on Iran that has eschewed diplomacy, as well as Tehran having found more space to operate with the onset of the post Russia-Ukraine geopolitical landscape, all set the stage for Hamas realising they could now unleash an all-out war against Israel and in the process stifle the Abraham Accords.
This is going to be a long, brutal, and bloody conflict. Hamas on their own of course stand no chance of truly defeating Israel, which must be acknowledged as one of the most technologically advanced and well organised militaries in the world, but what they can do is create a enormous quagmire which drags Tel Aviv down, radicalises Muslims all over the world, draws in the United States and thus drives a massive wedge against any growing support or reconciliation for Israel itself. Islamist strategy, be it in the form of ISIS or Al-Qaeda, has always been built around this premise.
As detailed in a 2004 strategy booklet published titled: "Management of Savagery" by Al-Qaeda leader Abu Bakr Naji (who was later blown up the by the US), Jihadist strategy involves waging a long-protracted war of aggression against the target with the goal of provoking a response from larger powers and subsequently unleashing a radicalisation propaganda campaign against other Muslims, aiming to transform the scenario into the ultimate "us vs. them" conflict. This was the precise strategy utilised by ISIS in both Iraq and Syria. It initially succeeded in creating a giant caliphate and inspiring a massive army of fighters from throughout the world, but was ultimately defeated by the United States and a coalition of its allies.
In this case, however, Hamas is not seeking to create a worldwide caliphate, but to engage the one issue which has been most controversial to the entire Muslim world, Israel. This means Arab states will not unite against Hamas in the way did ISIS (after all, even Iran, Russia and Syria contributed to the destruction of Daesh). On one hand, it is possible to wipe out the ideology of ISIS and its caliphate, but you cannot destroy the cause for Palestinian liberation and nationalism without committing total genocide. Israel pledges the destruction of Hamas as a group, but that isn't how it works, and this will be a protracted Jihadist conflict which has worldwide ramifications. It also means the United States will be ultimately forced to defend their hegemony in the region, of which Israel has been the keystone of, and subsequently risks a larger confrontation with Iran itself.
This means the conflict marks a new turning point in the history of the Middle East. It is a new US-Iran proxy war, but on the home turf of Israel itself, and in turn the second proxy war Washington must commit to in addition to Ukraine. It is too early to assess what the definitive outcome will be, but it is another disturbing development in the increasingly dangerous and uncertain world we live in today.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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