Opinion | Making and Breaking Good News

By Augustus K. Yeung

INTRODUCTION

Trade deals have always been China's top open secret weapon, as opposed to America's trade sanctions, political coercions and military might. However, a month or two before the world stepped into the Chinese New Year, good news appeared to be breaking for a time of relative peace contrasting the Trump-inspired social and political upheaval across America.

Apparently, President Joe Biden has incrementally brough peace to America by suppressing his predecessor's subversive power, unfolding the real politics of America's most seasoned politician who practically grew up on the Capitol.

With the threat of Trump's reelection advance attenuating by the day, a relaxed US president is now ready to meet President Xi Jinping, who having secured his third term in office, is now appearing confident, cheerful and more popular than ever.

The cordial summit meetings of the two world leaders in Bangkok and Bali in the days before the Chinese New Year showed signs of regional peace in the Asia-Pacific.

Let's us revisit the events that have happened there and then.

China's cooperation with Philippines on developing energy in SCS is of pivotal importance

"Recent years have seen ups and downs in China's relations with Southeast Asia. Economic ties continue to grow but there have also been periodical frictions due to territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Covid-19 and rising strategic competition between Beijing and Washington," observed Wang Huiyao, founder of the Centre for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based non-governmental think tank.

"This year presents a chance for Beijing to put relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on a steady footing. China is eager to shore up ties with its ASEAN neighbors to prevent them being drawn too far into Washington's orbit."

"Meanwhile, ASEAN members are prioritizing growth and jobs as they face stiff economic challenges in the wake of the pandemic, increasing incentives to resolve differences and work closer with China."

"The recent state visit to Beijing by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr is the latest sign of the positive momentum in China-ASEAN relations. Marcos left Beijing with an impressive haul of deliverables, including US$22.8 in investment pledges, an agreement to allow Philippine fishermen to resume operations at their historic fishing grounds, and an offer by President Xi Jinping to reopen talks on joint old and gas exploration," said Wang Huiyao.

"Both sides have good reasons to purse energy cooperation in the South China Sea and find ways to overcome the constraints that led to the breakdown of negotiations last year. Most importantly, working together to develop energy resources will help avoid conflict over disputed waters."

"The Philippines is keen to tap new sources of fossil fuels; its reliance on energy imports makes it exposed to rising oil prices, while its main domestic gas supply, the Malampaya gas field, is nearing depletion."

"For China, successful cooperation with the Philippines on development energy in the South China Sea would not only help secure new source of energy amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, but also provide a model for solving other disputes in the region such as with Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam."

Economic cooperation is the core of China's appeal to ASEAN countries…

"Marcos's visit comes after a marked uptick of engagement between China and ASEAN since the 20thparty congress. At the end of October, Nguyen Phu Trong, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, became the first foreign leader to visit China after the party congress. Xi and Trong vowed to upgrade their "special bond" and signed 13 major agreements covering key aspects of bilateral relations."

"A month later, Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith also made a state visit to China. Both sides vowed to increase cooperation, including further boosting connectivity between the Belt and Road and Laos."

"Away from Beijing, November saw a flurry of meetings between Chinese and ASEAN leaders at multilateral summits in Asia. Premier Li Keqiang met leaders of the 10-nation bloc at the ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh and between the G20 in Bali and Apec in Bangkok, Xi Jinping met the leaders of Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand."

"Economic cooperation is the core of China's appeal to Southeast Asian countries and an advantage over the US in efforts to woo the region. ASEAN has risen to become China's top trading partner since 2020, with two-way trade reaching US$878 billion in 2021."

"The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RECEP) trade deal, which entered into force at the start of 2022, will help to further integrate supply chains between China and Southeast Asia."

Looking to the rest of this year, China's reopening will support efforts to improve relations with ASEAN. Entrepreneurs and officials will again be able to travel easily between the two regions, boosting trade, investment and diplomatic initiatives such as talks on a code of conduct for the South China Sea. (Source: SCMP)

CONCLUSION

Geopolitically, ASEAN countries are well placed to benefit from the rebound of Chinese tourism as pent-up demands is unleashed, notably Singapore and Thailand.

Goldman Sachs estimates that increased trade and tourism from China's reopening may lift the GDP of Thailand and Singapore by 2.9 per cent, 1.2 per cent respectively.

In addition, Marcos' visit to China shows there is the political will in Beijing and ASEAN capitals to settle disputes amicably in the South China Sea and deepen economic cooperation. Joint oil and gas development could be an effective vehicle to achieve this, especially amid fluctuating global energy prices and economic uncertainty amid the war in Ukraine. China is expected to do well by seizing this opportunity and exploring similar initiatives with other peace-loving ASEAN members.

Conclusively, President Joe Biden is now experiencing a change of mood for the better as shown by a series of top American officials meeting their Chinese counterparts with Janet Yellin partnering Liu He, and Anthony Blinken's team coming to Beijing to prepare for the next round of US-China encounter.

The world's two largest economic powers appear to be breaking great news.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

Read more articles by Augustus K. Yeung:

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