By Tom Fowdy
US President Donald Trump has provoked outrage by announcing a plan to import diesel from the Russian Federation. The plan, widely condemned by allies and other American politicians, is a slap in the face to the massive sanctions imposed on Moscow by Washington following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
To Trump's critics, the move is no surprise, after all, he is continually accused of being "soft" on the Kremlin to the point "Russian interference" has become a common political talking point of the liberal centre ground in western politics. The President repeatedly had vowed, to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, with many doubting his support for Kyiv, yet attempts to broker peace have faltered because the status quo does not suffice the political interests of either party.
While the US has not, as critical narratives claim, truly abandoned Ukraine and continues to provide military support (just without the political fanfare of the Biden administration), it is nonetheless true that the President has begun to re-engage with Moscow, much to the aghast of allies. However, his announcement regarding "importing diesel" from the country, as annoying as it may be to some, is not so much a gift to the Kremlin as it is a classical Trumpian act of market manipulation and an election ploy, and we must understand it through this lens.
First, the Mid-term elections are coming. Trump is politically in trouble and risks losing the US House of Representatives to the Democrats, who will undoubtedly frustrate his agenda in the final half of his term. The President's decision-making has contributed to his own woes as he launched a war against Iran under the miscalculation, he could swiftly destroy the Islamic Republic regime and create a new client state, giving the US control of its vast oil reserves in the same manner they had done so with Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro.
The plan failed spectacularly, with Iran using its geographic leverage to close down one of the world's key energy transit roots, launch massive attacks on oil infrastructure in US-aligned Gulf States, and thus produce a global fuel crisis. This, of course, hits voters in the pocket at home, who understand it is the product of an unwanted and unnecessary war of choice. As a result, Trump again tried to force peace, but because American strategic interests demand nothing less than Iran's total capitulation to US terms, again deals to end it came to naught.
Tehran, sensing the White House's political vulnerabilities amidst the election, subsequently activated the Houthis in Yemen, who then seized the Red Sea coastline, another strategic chokepoint, and then proceeded to launch massive attacks on Saudi Arabia. The President's attempted decapitation act against the Iranian state has escalated into a regional contagion, which of course have a negative impact on global oil prices, and thus ship huge political liabilities to him back home. So having lost control of the situation, what does Trump do?
The answer is to do what he always does: manipulate markets. Donald Trump has a long-established record of using the power of his rhetoric to shift market sentiment, often by announcing deals and creating hype that has no substance to them whatsoever. This is because markets operate on feeling and psychology more so than political fact, and the President has used this repeatedly to his advantage in tactically getting the markets to adjust radical changes in the economic status quo, largely by stating deals that are either empty or completely oversold. We can subsequently interpret many of these Iran "peace deals" precisely in that light, making promises to end it, to "cool" things down, but nonetheless refusing to actually follow through with anything, with sporadic fighting continuing albeit under a different psychology.
Thus, Trump's announcement to "Import diesel from Russia" is the same. It was an election-focused market manipulation stunt aimed at easing fuel prices. It has already been pointed out by numerous analysts that even if the deal went through, the amount that he is claiming to be on offer is subsequently meaningless anyway, but it is ultimately the psychology that matters here. Likewise, as also set out in numerous previous articles, Trump's personal diplomatic and foreign policy style puts economic gain above reality.
Rather than pursuing a universalist, liberal ideology, as the US typically does, the President instead takes an approach based putting raw national interest and economic gain, first. If a country serves America's goals or interests, it is good and America should make a deal with it, regardless of its own system of government, and he is willing to give them broad passes on their own flaws provided they submit to these interests. Thus, Donald Trump has never seen any problem in engaging with Russia, even if he will not truly throw Ukraine under the bus. This deal though, is for the most part a stunt. While it undoubtedly carries some diplomatic meaning, chief amongst the President's priorities is manipulating markets for the mid-term elections, and we should not forget that.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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