An exceptionally strong El Nino event officially formed in September 2026 and is expected to become the strongest on record, with Hong Kong potentially facing even hotter weather next summer if the phenomenon persists.
The National Climate Centre's monitoring data showed on Oct. 9 that a super El Nino event had officially developed in September. It forecasts that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will continue to rise over the next three months, peaking in late autumn or early winter. The event is expected to be the strongest El Nino since systematic monitoring began.
HK could face hotter summer in 2027
Shun Chi-ming, former director of the Hong Kong Observatory, told Ta Kung Pao in an earlier interview that the high-temperature challenges posed by the super El Nino should not be underestimated. He said the record-breaking heat HK experienced in August this year was linked to its development. If the super El Nino persists for an extended period, next summer could be even hotter.
Shun said that, in general, HK tends to experience more rainfall during winter and spring in El Nino years. In the first year of a super El Nino event, the number of tropical cyclones affecting HK also tends to decrease.
Historical data show that HK typically has only around two to five tropical cyclones requiring the issuance of tropical cyclone warning signals in the first year of a super El Nino event.
However, changes in atmospheric circulation mean tropical cyclones tend to form farther east in the Pacific and are therefore more likely to track northward. If a tropical cyclone eventually reaches HK, it is likely to have absorbed more energy over the sea and could be more intense.
Based on the available data, Shun expects the current super El Nino to follow these general patterns.
On temperatures, Shun said historical data indicate that El Nino tends to push temperatures higher in almost every part of the world.
During the 2023–2024 El Nino event, for example, much of Asia experienced record-breaking temperatures, while 2024 was HK's hottest year since records began in 1884.
Shun noted that the current El Nino has already been associated with numerous record-breaking events even before reaching its peak, highlighting its considerable strength.
As HK enters winter towards the end of this year, the event's effects may be reflected in a rise in the average winter temperature, he said.
However, if the phenomenon persists for longer, next summer's impact will be even more pronounced, Shun said, adding that global average temperatures are highly likely to set a new record next year.
Related News:
Comment