Hong Kong is set for a sharp swing in weather conditions over the coming days, with very hot, mainly sunny skies expected through midweek before a northeasterly monsoon brings a noticeable cooldown after National Day, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) said in its latest outlook.
According to the HKO's weather summary issued at 4:30pm on September 29, an upper-air anticyclone will continue to bring generally fine weather to southeastern China over the next one to two days. With weak winds along the Guangdong coast, Hong Kong will remain hot during the day.
The Observatory's nine-day forecast indicates urban temperatures on September 30 are expected to range from 29°C to 34°C, with relative humidity of about 60% to 85% and light to moderate southwesterlies. Conditions are forecast to be mostly sunny and very hot during the day.
National Day on October 1 is also expected to be hot, with urban temperatures forecast at around 29°C to 33°C. The Observatory said there will be sunshine at times, though isolated showers may develop later.
A change is expected soon after. The HKO noted that as the anticyclone weakens and a northeasterly monsoon influences the region, cloud cover will increase over South China later this week, bringing a few showers. The influx of drier monsoonal air is then expected to affect Guangdong from early to mid next week, leading to brighter skies, slightly cooler mornings, and drier daytime conditions.
The biggest drop is forecast for next Tuesday, October 6, which the Observatory described as the coolest morning in the nine-day outlook. The urban minimum is forecast at about 24°C, with daytime temperatures rising to around 29°C. Winds are expected to be moderate from the north to northeast, with stronger conditions offshore at times. Skies will be mainly cloudy with one or two showers, turning brighter at times during the day.
HKO's district-based automatic forecast suggests parts of the New Territories could feel significantly cooler at daybreak on October 6, with temperatures of 23°C or below in several areas. Shek Kong and Ta Kwu Ling are forecast to dip to 21°C, while Sheung Shui, Tin Shui Wai, and Tseung Kwan O may see lows around 22°C.
Looking further ahead, the Observatory's forecast for October 7 and 8 points to generally fine and drier conditions, with relative humidity potentially dropping as low as around 50% in the middle of next week. October 8 also coincides with "Cold Dew" (寒露), one of the 24 solar terms, which traditionally marks the arrival of deeper autumn.
Separately, the HKO also provided an update on Severe Tropical Storm Shanshan (舒力基), saying it was located about 620 km south of Osaka at 4pm on September 29. The storm is forecast to move northeast at around 18 km/h across waters south of Japan and gradually transition into an extratropical system. The Observatory expects the system to weaken into a tropical storm on September 30, with maximum sustained winds near its center decreasing to about 75 km/h, while remaining several hundred kilometers away from Japan's Honshu.
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