Financial Secretary Paul Chan voiced cautious optimism on Sunday about Hong Kong's economic outlook for the second half of the year, citing robust first‑half performance driven largely by strong exports. Speaking on a Commercial Radio programme, he said both external demand and domestic consumption have stayed resilient, with retail sales posting 14 consecutive months of growth and the catering sector seeing a modest uptick.
On the financial side, Chan noted that property and stock markets are showing stabilising signs with a positive bias, while the labour market remains healthy. Given these fundamentals, he expects the economy to maintain steady momentum through year‑end.
However, he acknowledged external headwinds—particularly US trade policies and interest rate moves—as notable risks. He does not foresee dramatic near‑term shifts, adding that markets have already priced in a possible 0.25‑percentage‑point rate hike later this year. With the US midterm elections approaching, Chan believes the impact on Hong Kong will be "present but manageable."
On trade, Chan highlighted the agility of mainland and Hong Kong firms in adapting to changing conditions. While the US remains an important partner, its relative significance has declined—it now ranks fourth in Hong Kong's export markets by volume. "The psychological effect is greater," he said, which can fuel financial market volatility, but proper risk management should suffice.
Chan also touched on geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict, which already affected energy supplies in the first half. Supply‑chain disruptions and inflationary pressures are concerns, but he maintained these risks are containable. Ultimately, he stressed that amid external uncertainties, Hong Kong must stay resolute and accelerate efforts to reinforce stability and growth.
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