Donald Trump probably never imagined that every missile he agreed to fire at Iran would ultimately become another stepping stone for the global expansion of Chinese new energy vehicles (NEVs).
Ever since Trump chose to engage in a firefight with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has been stuck in a quantum state of "blockaded one moment, unblocked the next," driving global oil prices steadily upward amid the uncertainty.
Brent crude surged from US$65 per barrel at the start of this year to a peak of US$110 per barrel in April—a nearly 70% increase in just four months, which could almost be called an "oil crisis."
Chinese drivers of gasoline cars have certainly felt the impact of this "crisis" through their wallets, and the same is true across the seas.
In Europe, the average price of gasoline in the EU rose from €1.55 per liter in early February to €1.98 per liter in mid-April. In Germany, France, and Italy, the price of premium gasoline (E5/E10) exceeded €2.1 per liter, while the Netherlands, a bellwether for European fuel prices, set a new all-time high of €2.35 per liter.
As a result, people have started rediscovering the benefits of electric vehicles (EVs). On Germany's mobile.de website, the share of EV searches rose from 12% in early March to 36%, and used car dealers saw a 66% increase in EV inquiries. The same trend occurred at France's Aramisauto, where EV sales share nearly doubled, climbing from 6.5% on February 16 to 12.7%.
European EV owners who had already taken delivery of their cars must be grinning in their sleep.
On the other side of the ocean, in Southeast Asia, the situation is even worse. Due to their reliance on a single source of oil, countries like Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia are facing their most severe oil shortage in nearly 20 years. For instance, the Philippines declared a "state of national energy emergency" on March 24 and, to reduce oil consumption, directly implemented a four-day workweek.
So, without oil, everyone's work fatigue has significantly decreased—what a silver lining!
But gasoline car owners are suffering. In the Philippines, over 400 gas stations have announced closures, and those still operating may impose a daily limit of 20 liters per vehicle. Many people have had to queue for days just to refuel.
Thus, the ultimate beneficiary is still EVs. For example, at this year's Bangkok International Motor Show, BYD was exceptionally popular, securing 17,000 orders and leaving behind the former champions, Toyota and Honda.
And that's not all; Chinese EVs are selling like hotcakes worldwide.
In Brazil, Chinese EVs claimed the top spot in monthly sales for the first time in February. The BYD Dolphin Mini (Seagull in China) sold 4,094 units in a single month, capturing 77.6% of the pure EV market. In Australia, China ended Japan's 28-year monopoly to become the largest source of new cars.
Some regions have even reported inventory shortages. Reports say that in March, BYD urgently dispatched an additional 20,000 vehicles to Australia, with models like the Atto 2 and Shark 6 being booked while still on the ship.
Consequently, China's EV export data this year is astonishing. In the first quarter, China exported a total of 954,000 new energy vehicles (pure EV + PHEV), a year-on-year surge of 120%. Structurally, NEVs now account for 43% of total vehicle exports, meaning EVs and gasoline cars are nearly split 50-50.
Previously, China's car exports relied mostly on Chery and SAIC. But in the NEV sector, BYD becomes the real star. In the first quarter of this year, BYD exported a total of 319,800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 65.1%. Models like the Song PLUS, Seagull, and Song PRO each sell over 10,000 units monthly overseas.
The fastest-growing brand, however, is Leapmotor. In Q1, it exported over 40,000 vehicles, a year-on-year surge of 310%. Particularly in the home market of its old partner Stellantis—namely, 16 European countries—sales skyrocketed by 726.5%.
Geely's sales have also been impressive. The company has launched a wide range of models overseas, all of which have proven popular.
In short, "thanks to" this surge in oil prices, the overseas expansion of Chinese NEVs is accelerating uncontrollably.
However, behind these success stories lie challenges. Going global isn't just about product competitiveness and value for money; it's about pitting one whole system against another.
A Thai friend believes that the oil price hike is only a short-term boost for Chinese EVs. In the long run, more time is needed.
"If you're planning to buy an EV in Thailand soon, I'd recommend a Tesla. If you can wait 2-3 years, then go for a Chinese brand—they still need time to build out their ecosystem."
Is the lack of supporting infrastructure unique to Thailand? In most regions around the world, Chinese brands are in a transitional phase from exporting complete vehicles to local production, so gaps in supporting systems are not rare.
As a beachhead for Chinese car exports, Chinese brands already hold a 22.2% market share in Thailand (2025 data). For instance, while orders for Chinese EVs are strong, average delivery times of 2-4 months are not entirely due to production shortages but also reflect a "sell first, produce later" mechanism.
Going global isn't like setting up a roadside stall at your doorstep. Many automakers and dealers keep inventory low to cut costs, so some models and parts still rely on sea freight from China.
This process is akin to online shopping: besides actual shipping time, there's also waiting time to "pool orders." If you bought an EV because of high oil prices, by the time the car is delivered to you, the conflict in the Middle East might already be over.
Some may wonder: aren't Chinese automakers building many overseas factories? In Thailand alone, BYD, Great Wall Motors, SAIC, Changan, Chery, GAC, and others have set up operations, and most of these aren't just CKD (complete knock-down) assembly plants but full-fledged factories with the four major manufacturing processes.
The problem is, car production depends not just on factories but also on supply chains. Core components like the "three-electric" system (battery, motor, electronic control) are almost entirely produced locally, but behind that is still a logistics issue. Therefore, besides delivery difficulties, after-sales service overseas is also a major challenge.
First, while Chinese automakers' 4S dealerships are sprouting up overseas, there are very few repair shops outside the 4S network that can fix EVs. According to the Thai friend, "There are no more than 10 companies in Thailand capable of repairing EVs." And going through 4S channels is not easy either; many parts must be ordered from China and shipped by sea, with waiting times of 30 to 50 days at a minimum.
Under the current model, even if Chinese EVs sell well, they haven't truly taken root overseas like Japanese cars. If supporting services lag, the more they sell, the greater the risk to their reputation.
Moreover, beyond insufficient localization, the audience for Chinese EVs remains relatively narrow, mostly urban, well-off young people who like trying new things.
On one hand, EV prices have fallen sharply in recent years, valuation systems are in disarray, and overseas markets generally lack a favorable financial environment.
Many banks don't discriminate against Chinese EVs out of prejudice, but rather fear risk and are reluctant to offer loans for EVs. For example, in Thailand, the rejection rate for EV loans is 50-70%. While gasoline cars can be purchased with zero down payment, EVs require at least 20-25% down, immediately filtering out many potential buyers. The main remedial measure automakers can take is offering their own "interest subsidies," which have limited effectiveness.
On the other hand, local environments and infrastructure are also major reasons why most countries globally cannot fully embrace EV exports.
A Chinese worker in Zambia noted that power outages are common in suburban areas of some African countries. "Replacing stable gasoline with unreliable electricity is a pipe dream," so locals still need gasoline cars even though both cars and fuel are scarce.
Even in countries with relatively stable energy supplies like Thailand, Chinese automakers still need to help build out the power grid and charging stations. Outside the capital, EVs have almost no chance of survival.
"In this country, where everywhere except Bangkok remains a village, you live halfway up a mountain or on an orchard—are you seriously going to drive an EV instead of a diesel pickup? No way."
Given the high oil prices, most people still resort to lower-quality E20 gasoline (20% ethanol) or directly convert to natural gas (adding injectors and gas tanks) to get through the crisis.
Therefore, the limited audience for EVs is a problem that Chinese automakers cannot easily solve on their own. The rise in oil prices may not elevate Chinese EVs to the same legendary status that past oil crises conferred on Japanese cars.
That said, Chinese EVs do have one irreplaceable advantage that Tesla, Japanese, and German EVs cannot match: a comprehensive product matrix.
Take Tesla: people have been calling for the Model Q for years, but it still hasn't arrived. Tesla remains reliant on the Model 3 and Model Y. In contrast, Chinese automakers truly offer everything—pure EVs, plug-in hybrids, everything.
The explosive sales of Chinese EVs overseas may have been triggered by the oil price spike, but the underlying reason is victory in the "battle of products," not the "battle of systems." In this regard, they might learn from Japanese automakers, who spent 60 years weaving an impenetrable web across Southeast Asia. That web includes factories, supply chains, 4S dealerships, financial companies, used car markets, and even schools and hospitals.
What they sell isn't just cars—it's an entire lifestyle. If Chinese automakers could achieve this level of localization in just 1-2 years, their path to global expansion would be broader. And when global consumers vote with their feet for Chinese EVs, a new era will truly begin.
(Source: X Pin)
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