By Tom Fowdy
The Green Party has emerged victorious in the Gorton & Denton by-election held in Greater Manchester. It is the first-ever by-election party for the left-wing party, led by Zack Polanski, who has seen its popularity surge by exploiting dissatisfaction with the Labour Party over perceived right-wing policies from Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Indeed, Starmer is suffering from record low popularity, and it is little surprise his party ended up finishing 3rd in what was statistically one of his safest seats, even finishing behind Reform UK.
But how, did such a result happen? Gorton & Denton is in my opinion, a microcosm of how identity shifts are aggressively re-shaping British politics in a polarising way. Gorton & Benton is a working-class community in Greater Manchester, the constituency being created in 2019 from a realignment of other Manchester seats. Traditionally, its socio-economic realities have meant the Labour Party have always won comfortably and easily in this area, building on a coalition of the area's Pakistani Community and the white working class vote.
But this coalition is no longer tenable: Starting in 2024, White working-class communities in post-industrial Northern England have been drifting towards Reform UK in significant numbers, driven by identity sentiments and opposition to immigration. This is a shift that has been long underway, with the old "unionist ideology" once embedded in these areas effectively dying off as the memory of Industrial heritage drifts further away – trust me, I am from Sunderland, I have grown up with this sentimental shift – and identity-based insecurity grows.
Now Keir Starmer's Labour government has responded to the rise of Reform UK by taking a much harder stance against immigration and asylum, with the "Small Boats" issue having become a symbol and venting point for public anger over it. However, what Labour have underestimated is that by trying to chase one set of voters (who are not going to be convinced by these efforts anyway) over this issue, is that it is systematically alienating the other side of its "broad coalition," that is ethnic minority communities as well as what I would call the "metropolitan left."
These communities are alienated not only by Starmer's unpopular economic policies (which might otherwise build a winnable coalition) but also hostile rhetoric on immigration, as well as support of Israel in the background. Because Labour is perceived to be "moving rightwards" by the left, it subsequently creates a political vacuum wherein the Green Party has been able to fill. Zack Polanski's Greens are pro-immigration and anti-war. It did not take much for them to align the Pakistani community of this constituency behind them by even campaigning in Urdu, thus delivering a crippling blow to Keir Starmer.
This makes you wonder, where else is there for Labour, in its current form, to go? Keir Starmer is facing challenges from both the left and the right encroaching on the broad electoral coalition the party has thrived on, which is now effectively untenable. British politics has been fragmenting on identity grounds for about a decade now, with the Referendum on Brexit in 2016 being the decisive turning point. As of present, Reform is growing in post-industrial areas, Plaid Cymru is surging in Wales, the SNP is robust in Scotland, the Greens are booming in big left-leaning cities, the Conservatives tentatively hold on in wealthy middle-class areas in the South, while the Liberal Democrats exist as a "none of the above" tactical vote around the Southwest. In each of these scenarios, Labour ends up the loser. Now, while a more popular leader, and ironically Andy Burnham, would have probably won in Gorton, might be able to paper over the cracks a bit more, this identity fracture will require a total reinvention of the party's electoral strategy and branding, and mind you not a Tony Blair style one either.
In years gone by, British Post-war Politics was built on such a strategy of "broad coalitions" where Labour and the Conservatives existed as two camps, easily using a binary choice mechanism to starve off challenges from the left and the right while appealing to the centre ground. Even though Starmer was elected with a massive majority in 2024, it was a hollow one and its grandeur was exaggerated only by the rigidity of first-past-the-post. Labour can't be "everything to everyone" anymore, they must pick a side, but the dilemma is to do this they must ultimately sacrifice others.
In the meanwhile, expect to see greater instability within Labour itself as challenges from the left grow. Can Keir Starmer hold on? He's definitely a man without a plan here.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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