Just one day after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi formally conveyed her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives, the country's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), announced on Jan. 15 that it would form an "anti-Takaichi alliance" with Komeito.
On the afternoon of Jan. 15, the leaders of the CDP and Komeito held talks and reached an agreement to establish a new party. Sources indicate that the new party may be named "Centrist Reform Union," aiming to unite centrist forces within Japanese politics. Japanese media observers suggest that the CDP and Komeito intend to strengthen cooperation and broaden their support base to jointly challenge the Takaichi camp in the upcoming House of Representatives election.
Xiang Haoyu, a special researcher at the Asia-Pacific Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, noted that the two parties will need a period of adjustment in their collaboration. In the upcoming election, the Takaichi camp aims for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to secure an outright majority in the House of Representatives. If this goal is not achieved, continued policy implementation obstacles and lack of visible results may further erode Takaichi's approval ratings.
How Will the New Party Strategize to Counter the Takaichi Camp?
Xiang Haoyu highlighted that, given Japan's relatively low voter turnout, the two opposition parties are focusing their alliance on "Centrist Reform," emphasizing pragmatic policies such as measures against rising prices and improving people's livelihoods. By clearly positioning themselves as an alternative to the ruling party's "conservative tilt," they aim to attract support from moderate voters.
Maximizing electoral cooperation is another key strategy. Komeito will refrain from fielding candidates in single-member districts and instead fully support CDP candidates. This move is expected to deal a significant blow to LDP candidates who have consistently relied on Komeito's support in the past.
Additionally, the new party may invite other political groups to join the "opposition collaboration," further expanding centrist influence. This could potentially lead to a realignment within Japanese politics.
However, the two parties also face practical challenges in their future cooperation. These include reconciling differences in policy ideologies, coordinating electoral district strategies, and persuading their respective support bases to reach an internal consensus. As a political coalition, the new party must also establish its own charter and policies, requiring extensive agreement on issues such as the economy, people's livelihoods, social security, and tax reform.
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