According to reports from The Paper and Guancha, as of 10 am on Nov. 24, data from the third-party travel platform flight butler DAST shows that 12 routes between China and Japan have canceled all flights, involving cities such as Nagoya, Fukuoka, Sapporo, and Osaka. Monitoring data indicates that the cancellation rate for planned flights to Japan will reach a peak of 21.6% on November 27 over the next week, the highest rate in a month. Among the top 20 routes with planned flights, those with the highest cancellation rates include Tianjin Binhai to Kansai International (65.0% cancellation rate), Nanjing Lukou to Kansai International (59.4%), Guangzhou Baiyun to Kansai International (31.3%), Shanghai Pudong to Kansai International (30.1%), and Wuxi Shuofang to Kansai International (28.6%).
Potential Economic Losses of 2.2 Trillion Yen Due to Decrease in Chinese Tourists
According to the aforementioned monitoring data, there are 1,224 planned weekly flights from the Chinese Mainland to Japan. In response to Sanae Takaichi's erroneous remarks regarding Taiwan, multiple departments, including the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Chinese Embassy and Consulates in Japan, and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, issued warnings and serious reminders from November 14 to 16, advising Chinese citizens to avoid traveling or studying in Japan in the near future. The enthusiasm of Chinese tourists for travel to Japan is rapidly cooling. Recently, many travel agencies told The Paper that they have received numerous cancellations for group tours to Japan. Airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines have implemented special refund policies for tickets related to routes to Japan, supporting lossless cancellations of relevant tickets. Additionally, several domestic airlines have canceled or planned to cancel flights to Japan. An airline representative indicated to The Paper that adjustments to routes to Japan depend on market demand, and airlines are currently monitoring and assessing passenger changes and cancellations.
Data from the Japan National Tourism Organization shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, Japan received a total of 31.651 million foreign tourists, with 7.4872 million coming from the Chinese Mainland, an increase of 42.7% compared to the same period last year. This means that the Chinese Mainland has surpassed South Korea to become Japan's largest source of foreign tourists. According to CCTV news, on November 16, a researcher at Nomura Research Institute stated that if the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan decreases significantly, Japan's GDP could decrease by 0.36%, with preliminary calculations of economic losses reaching 2.2 trillion yen, equivalent to approximately RMB 101.16 billion. Data shows that the booking volume for China routes at Narita Airport in Tokyo has declined by 65% in a single day, while hotels in areas like Kyoto and Nara, which rely on Chinese tourists, have seen vacancy rates soar to 70%. Many tourists, after processing cancellations for their trips to Japan, have opted to book other travel destinations instead.
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