US President Donald Trump recently announced that he had ordered the US military to resume nuclear tests, sparking widespread international attention and strong reactions. Although Trump claimed he had no other choice, nuclear experts and international public opinion generally believe that this move lacks a realistic basis and could escalate the risk of a global nuclear arms race. Since the signing of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996, most countries have halted nuclear tests. However, Trump's statement challenges this international consensus and could reignite the nuclear threat reminiscent of the Cold War. At the same time, the legacy of US nuclear testing still haunts affected regions, further intensifying global security concerns.
Nuclear experts: Laboratory tests are sufficient, criticism of disrupting global nuclear balance
Several Western media outlets have pointed out that, given the current global geopolitical tensions, nuclear experts generally believe that the US has neither the need nor the capability to resume nuclear tests. Some nuclear experts also criticized the idea that restarting nuclear tests to assert US nuclear dominance would only destabilize the global nuclear balance.
Experts argue that if the goal is simply to confirm the reliability of the US nuclear arsenal, existing subcritical experiments are more than sufficient. The US currently conducts its subcritical nuclear tests primarily at the subcritical test facility (PULSE), where major nuclear weapon laboratories use supercomputers to simulate the entire nuclear test process on a large scale. Subcritical experiments are performed at PULSE to provide real-world data to ensure the accuracy of the digital simulations without triggering a chain reaction.
Analysts believe that Trump's call for resuming nuclear tests is related to the US military's push for the development of the new W93 nuclear warhead. Nuclear experts warn that Trump may be attempting to use nuclear tests to validate the effectiveness of the aging US nuclear arsenal and demonstrate its ability to pose a threat in critical moments. However, this comprehensive nuclear buildup is essentially a return to Cold War-era thinking, seeking to establish absolute nuclear superiority to deter competitors.
US nuclear experts generally agree that maintaining the current nuclear test ban is more advantageous for the US As Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association, stated: "Since suspending nuclear tests in 1992, the US has maintained the reliability of its nuclear arsenal through non-test nuclear stockpile management programs. The US has no need to conduct nuclear tests to maintain the effectiveness of its current warheads."
Experts also warn that as the world's leading nuclear power, any US withdrawal from the test ban and resumption of nuclear testing would inevitably provoke countermeasures from other countries, potentially triggering a new nuclear arms race. More seriously, this action would fundamentally undermine the international nuclear non-proliferation regime, centered on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), further destabilizing the already fragile global strategic environment.
The futility of Trump's "Nuclear test restart"
The statement made by US President Donald Trump on social media about "resuming nuclear tests" can easily be seen as a decision based on misconceptions or hearsay, and is, in fact, unrealistic when considering both the current international situation and the domestic context in the US.
Trump’s social media post mentioned, "Because of other countries' testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis." There are several inaccuracies or unclear statements in these two sentences. First, the claim that "other nations are conducting nuclear tests" is simply untrue. Since 1996, all countries that signed the CTBT have not conducted nuclear tests, and even North Korea, which has conducted the most nuclear tests among non-signatory states, has not conducted a nuclear test since 2017.
In other words, the claim that "Because of other countries' testing programs" is factually incorrect. It is more likely that Trump was referring to a recent event, when Russia conducted strategic nuclear force exercises and tested intercontinental ballistic missiles and Air-launched cruise missiles (but did not conduct a nuclear test). Trump may have misunderstood or misinterpreted this event, assuming Russia had conducted a nuclear test, and decided to follow suit. However, the US has long been testing strategic weapons such as missiles, so there is no real issue of whether to resume nuclear testing.
Moreover, as many experts have pointed out, if the US were to carry out a significant nuclear test, it would take at least two to three years of preparation, which means Trump would likely be out of office by then, and it is unclear whether Congress would even allocate the necessary budget for such tests.
From the perspective of international dynamics, resuming nuclear tests would not bring significant benefits to the US Prior to the CTBT, the US conducted the most nuclear tests and accumulated the most nuclear test data. The 1996 treaty essentially "locked in" this advantage for the US. If the US were to resume nuclear tests, other countries, such as Russia, might follow suit. In such a scenario, the US would ultimately lose more than it gained.
Domestic and international criticism: US media links move to Cold War era
In late October, the order of Trump’s resuming nuclear tests provoked a significant response both within the US and internationally, with widespread criticism.
Deputy spokesman for the UN secretary-general, Farhan Haq, stated that UN Secretary-General António Guterres had repeatedly warned that the current nuclear risks are alarmingly high and urged all countries to avoid actions that could lead to misjudgments or escalate tensions, potentially causing "catastrophic" consequences. The New York Times remarked that Trump’s announcement to restart nuclear tests evoked memories of the darkest days of the Cold War, a time filled with terrifying threats and counter-threats.
Brandon Williams, a senior US government official responsible for nuclear testing matters, testified earlier this year that when asked whether the US should resume explosive tests, he said, "I would not recommend conducting tests; I believe we should rely on scientific information," referring to data collected through supercomputer modeling. Executive Director of the Arms Control Association, Daryl G. Kimball, also pointed out, "There is no technical, military, or political reason for the US to resume nuclear explosive testing."
Kimball further explained that nuclear explosive tests typically fall into two categories: a typical underground nuclear explosion test, which must be fully enclosed to avoid radioactive contamination, requiring preparation of at least 36 months. Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, added that the simplest nuclear explosion test would require 6 to 10 months, while a test with meaningful scientific data, involving the installation of complete monitoring equipment, would need 2 to 3 years. A test conducted to develop new types of warheads could take up to 5 years. He said that the White House would first need to issue orders to the Department of Energy to begin preparing for the tests, and because there is currently no active nuclear test plan or budget, Congress would also need to approve funding.
Most countries have signed the CTBT: US has not ratified it
The majority of countries around the world signed the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996, which prohibits nuclear explosions anywhere on Earth. The US signed the treaty in 1996 but has never ratified it. Trump's remarks about resuming nuclear tests have reignited debates in the US about national security, with many questioning whether the US plans to break its commitment to the CTBT.
According to United Nations statistics, from the first atomic bomb test in 1945 to the adoption of the CTBT in 1996, more than 2,000 nuclear tests were conducted worldwide. The US carried out 1,032 of those tests, with the last one in 1992. The Soviet Union conducted 715 tests, with the last one in 1990. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia, which inherited the Soviet nuclear arsenal, has not conducted any nuclear tests. Russia signed the CTBT in 1996 and ratified it in 2000, until President Vladimir Putin withdrew Russia’s approval in 2023 in response to escalating global geopolitical tensions, aligning Russia's position with the US.
The Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), Robert Floyd, stated that "Any country conducting nuclear weapon explosions would undermine global nuclear non-proliferation efforts and jeopardize international peace and security."
Lingering fallout from nuclear tests: The shadow of radiation still looms over many regions
For years, the US conducted nuclear tests primarily in Nevada, a desert area, and on the Marshall Islands in the Pacific, causing significant harm to local environments and residents. Nuclear experts and environmental organizations have pointed out that the US's frequent nuclear tests have left large areas of land contaminated by radiation, resulting in ongoing health problems for residents.
Between 1946 and 1958, the US conducted 67 nuclear tests in the Marshall Islands, and some of these test sites are still suffering from radiation contamination 70 years later. The US National Cancer Institute estimates that between 1948 and 1970, between 0.4% and 3.4% of cancers in the local population may have been linked to radiation exposure. The 1954 "Operation Castle Bravo" nuclear test in the Marshall Islands exposed 82 residents of two atolls to radioactive fallout, and their lifetime cancer risk increased by 28% to 69%.
The devastating effects of nuclear tests are difficult to quantify, and it is hard to directly link specific diseases in victims to the tests. The US National Cancer Institute estimated that between 1951 and 1962, surface nuclear tests in Nevada led to approximately 11,000 to 212,000 excess cases of Thyroid cancer in the local population, highlighting the severe impact of nuclear testing on public health.
The US previously conducted partial cleanup efforts on the Marshall Islands but dumped large amounts of nuclear waste into the volcanic craters of Enewetak Atoll, causing further ecological damage. The United Nations and the Marshall Islands National Nuclear Commission have expressed concerns about the safety of these efforts.
(Source: Wen Wei Po; English Intern Editor: Zara; English Editor: Ian)
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