By Philip Yeung
The Canada-US special relationship is broken. For the weaker partner, the situation is dire. Bilateral ties have hit rock-bottom. For more than a century, this brotherhood has been the envy of the world, with their 8,891-mile border undefended, and trade flowing freely between them. They even share the same North America Air Defense (NORAD) system, with Canada snugly under America's protective umbrella. Theirs was once the world's largest free trade zone. But under fickle Trump, both sides are now hunkered down behind the ramparts. The romance has died a sudden death.
Let's be blunt, this is not a symmetrical relationship. Canada has always been the little brother. Canadians are fond of saying that when America sneezes, Canada catches a cold, and that living next to the US is akin to sleeping next to an elephant. But with Trump, the US is not only just sneezing, it is spitting germs in Canada's face. Canada will either be laid low by the Trump virus or trampled by a feral elephant.
Trump has made no secret of his contempt for his northern neighbor. He keeps boasting about his fantasy of annexing Canada as America's 51st state. This is no joke. Trump is dead serious about turning the Canadian prime minister into the governor of its new state. But to the last voter, Canada is resisting Trump's amorous embrace. Canadians are pushing back against this attack on their nation's sovereignty. Since Trump's return to the White House, Canadians have canceled 70% of air tickets to the US. American goods are being boycotted in Canadian shops and supermarkets. They prefer staying as polite Canadians, not pushy and ugly Americans.
Trump's Canada-bullying is by no means an isolated incident of America's disrespect towards its junior partner. At the height of the Vietnam War, President Johnson felt so betrayed by Canada's non-support of its war effort that he grabbed the visiting Canadian prime minister, Lester Pearson, by the lapel and physically lifted him off the floor in a shocking display of undiplomatic intimidation towards the head of a sovereign state. The Canadian leader, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, was badly shaken, but he refused to submit. With Trump, America's veneer of diplomacy has been shredded. Just ask the poor Ukrainian leader on his public humiliations in the White House.
Trump may be nursing a personal grudge against Canada. His wife Melania, was visibly attracted to Hollywood-handsome Justin Trudeau, practically swooning over him. Trump must have felt cuckolded by the younger man. And he has seized every opportunity to dish it out to the sex dynamite golden boy neighbor to the north.
Canada's vulnerability is underscored by statistics. Fully 75% of its exports are US-bound. This overdependency does not escape Trump. His so-called "art of the deal" is a joke. There is no art. Only brutal bullying. In this unequal relationship, America holds all the cards. Canada has few bargaining chips. Voluntary concessions are treated disdainfully as signs of weakness. For a backyard bully, leverage is the only thing that matters. And, sadly, Canada has none.
Canada, under Carney, at first sought to placate Trump by ganging up on China, its second-largest trading partner, by slapping a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. Big mistake. Going tit-for-tat, China counterpunched with a reciprocal tariff on Canadian canola oil, a move that has destroyed the livelihoods of tens of thousands of Canadian farmers.
After being jilted by Trump, Carney tried cozying up to France's Macron and Britain's Starmer. But he is just clutching at straws. The UK can ill-afford to upset Trump, thankful for his mild 10% tariffs on its imports. Britain, while lacking in leverage, has at least the flummeries of royalty for which Trump has a weakness. Canadian loyalty to the British crown is largely ceremonial and vice versa. Britain is out of the major league and in no position to help. As for France, it is wallowing deep in its own economic woes.
The only hope lies across the Pacific. China's economy is nine times that of Canada and is its second-largest trading partner, with enough clout to bolster or bail out the Canadians. Carney knows this as he heads east to play nice with China. But the Chinese are no simpletons. They see through the Canadian leader's U-turn as a matter of necessity, not a change of heart. Carney's anti-China bias is still a festering sore. Carney needs a fundamental rethink towards China. The truth is, the China-Canada relationship had been humming along until it was derailed by Justin Trudeau's stupidity in executing Trump's arrest warrant against Huawei's CFO.
The so-called "China threat" is a figment of the US imagination. China's only sin is in being too successful. Canada has little to gain and everything to lose in picking sides on the dispute between the two giants.
Trump's latest flare-up is triggered by the Ontario government's ad in the US, now hastily withdrawn, quoting Ronald Reagan as a critic against the use of tariffs as a weapon in trade. Trump reads this as a hostile attempt to influence the judgment of the US Supreme Court. In a fit of rage, he is slapping another 10% tariff on Canadian goods, on top of the 35% already in place. This is a death sentence on its economy. Over Canada, Trump sees no reason to chicken out, as his neighbor is a sitting duck.
Canada's economy is already wobbly. Time to invoke the wisdom of Pierre Trudeau, who befriended China by walking a tight rope in a delicate diplomatic balance. Carney should quickly walk back on the 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. How can you talk peace and partnership from a position of hostility? It takes two to tango. Carney must relearn his steps, as Canada's future is on the line. A powerful China-Canada axis may bring Trump crawling back to the table. But the key to opening China's door is respect, not short-term expediency.
Don't miss the boat this time. Otherwise, the Pacific is just another vast and empty ocean.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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