The Hong Kong Observatory announced today (Oct. 13) that a northeast monsoon is expected to affect South China early next week, while a low-pressure area will move towards Luzon in the Philippines over the weekend. Due to the influence of the northeast monsoon, there are uncertainties regarding the path and development of this low-pressure system.
Forecasts from multiple traditional computer and AI forecasting systems indicate that the low-pressure system is likely to strengthen into a tropical cyclone as it enters the northern South China Sea. It is expected to combine with the northeast monsoon, resulting in a system with stronger winds to the north and weaker winds to the south. It has recently approached within 200 to 300 kilometers south of Hong Kong, but will ultimately be "dried out" by the dry and cool air from the northeast monsoon, dissipating over the sea.
Under the combined influence of the northeast monsoon and the low-pressure system, the Observatory predicts that from Sunday (Oct. 19) to next Wednesday (Oct. 22), winds will blow from the north to northeast, with offshore and highland winds occasionally reaching force 6, indicating that the strong wind expected from the No. 3 signal may arrive earlier than previously forecasted. The Observatory may issue the strong monsoon signal, commonly referred to as the Strong Monsoon Signal, but it may not necessarily need to issue a wind signal. The nine-day weather forecast indicates that by next Wednesday (Oct. 22), the minimum temperature in urban areas will be 22 degrees, while it may drop by 1 to 2 degrees in the New Territories.
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