According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center of census data, the foreign-born population in the US decreased by nearly 1.5 million between January and June 2025, marking the first instance of negative growth in immigrant numbers in decades. This change is primarily attributed to the hardline immigration policies implemented by the Trump administration since the beginning of the year, which include enhanced border control, tightened visa scrutiny, and expanded deportations of undocumented immigrants, leading to a large number of immigrants voluntarily or forcibly leaving the country.
Analysis shows that as of June 2025, the total number of immigrants in the US has dropped to 51.9 million, a decrease of nearly 1.5 million compared to six months prior. Although officials claim this phenomenon has alleviated pressure on public services and boosted the job market, economists warn that the reduction in immigration may exacerbate labor shortages, particularly affecting industries that heavily rely on immigrants, such as agriculture, nursing, and hospitality. Over the long term, this could impact the competitiveness of the US economy and its demographic structure.
The policy changes have also sparked social concerns, as many undocumented immigrants choose to leave voluntarily for fear of arrest, with some families even abandoning years of established lives to return to their home countries. While the government has introduced a "voluntary return program" offering economic incentives, there remain issues of administrative delays and insufficient communication in the actual implementation process. Meanwhile, legal immigration channels have also been constricted, including the suspension of refugee resettlement, increasingly stringent visa reviews, and the termination of several temporary protected status programs.
Experts: Talent drain and aging population will surface
Experts point out that if this trend continues, the US will face dual challenges of talent drain and an aging population. Currently, there are approximately 4.6 million US citizen children whose parents are undocumented immigrants, and large-scale deportation actions may lead to family separations and humanitarian crises. The future direction of immigration policy will still depend on the interplay between administrative measures and judicial litigation.
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