By Tom Fowdy
Starting with the Washington Post, multiple US newspapers over the past few days have claimed that China is asking for Donald Trump to "oppose Taiwan independence" in exchange for a trade deal, making it one of the key concessions on the table.
As of present, US-China relations are in a détente, and overt American hostility towards Beijing is the lowest it has ever been since the time Trump took office the first time, irrespective of trade tensions. This is an unusual feeling to process. The Biden administration, running contrary to expectations, went at China escalating tensions on every single front. From Taiwan, to the South China Sea, to technology, and it is only seeing the paradoxical restraint of Trump at this moment in time that you ultimately realise just how much of a NeoConservative Biden was when it came to foreign policy, who escalated conflict all over the globe.
Of course, I frame everything at "this moment in time" very carefully. Trump can change course in ways that are unpredictable, and as can US foreign policy as a whole. Yet for now, the President has lulled tensions for the clear purpose of pursuing a grand trade deal, even as hallmarks of the "US Indo Pacific strategy" flicker throughout the halls of Washington D.C. I do not underestimate "the blob," who drive US foreign policy, for Trump is but a man, but they are a machine, and Incontestable US hegemony will always remain their paramount goal. Even as the President seeks to fundamentally rewrite the paradigm of America's relations with the world, one must reasonably question how long it will "last" or how far he can "go" without it being flipped back by a successor.
This poses the question, could Trump, even if he wanted to "oppose its independence" as part of a grand bargain? By Trump's own MAGA world logic, which is clearly transactional and pragmatic, it would not seem beyond the realm of possibility, but the idea seems out of touch with reality and the system he operates within. First, it has been a strategic objective to protect the "de-facto" distinction between Taiwan and Mainland China for 75 years now. In strategic terms, the island is deemed essential to American strategic goals in the Asia-Pacific, namely to dominate the first island chain and key shipping lanes, to project power onto the continent, and to buffer other US allies such as the Philippines and Japan.
It is for this reason, that when the United States normalised relations with China PR in 1979, Congress created the "Taiwan Relations Act," a legal safeguarding clearly aimed at seeking to protect the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and provide military assistance to the island, even as it vowed in direct agreements with Beijing itself that it would not support the independence of Taiwan. This arrangement has created the ambiguity of the US's "One China Policy" whereby it claims to support "One China," and recognise only Beijing officially, yet maintain ambiguous support for Taiwan, selling arms to the island.
In the 2020s, however, the rise in popularity of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Presidents in Taiwan, combined with strategic competition in Washington, began to subtly start "shifting the status quo" to embolden "Taiwan independence" sentiment, angering Beijing and leading to an explosion of tensions, infamously so during the Biden years. As China places the One China Policy as the centrepiece and fundamental basis of all its diplomatic relations, it should therefore be no surprise that Beijing places the Taiwan issue at the forefront of negotiations on all other issues, including trade, which China has played hardball over as it is. If Trump wants significant economic gains from Beijing, it is thus logical and expected that he will be expected to concede over Taiwan. As such, it is notable the US has not provoked over Taiwan once throughout the course of his Presidency so far, and has even shafted the island with trade tariffs directly.
Still, it seems implausible that the entire US blob ecosystem would just allow a President to unilaterally overturn 75 years of precedent and core strategic interests on a whim. Trump does unthinkable things, even more so in his second term, and has even demolished the US relationship with India despite it being the sacred cow of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy. Still, while Trump cannot overturn the fundamentals or bin the Taiwan Relations Act, what his administration could do is to issue a paradigm changing affirmation that the United States now "opposes" Taiwan independence, thus shifting away from the "does not support" precedent and reversing the effort of the past few years pushed by Taipei.
This would be a big enough political win for Beijing, who is not seeking a "lightning" takeover, but to use, as per I noted above, every diplomatic effort to ultimately push towards reunification. This will put all eyes on South Korea as the two leaders prepare plans to meet to ultimately seal the "grand bargain" which is emerging, will Taipei be on the table? Only time will tell.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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