By Philip Yeung
It was only in February this year that Indian prime minister Modi was received with great fanfare by Trump at the White House. But barely six months in, US-Indian relations have hit rock-bottom, with Trump slapping a 50% tariff on Indian exports. Originally set at 25%, it is now doubled to punish India for buying Russian oil and gas. For Trump, married three times, romance, political or otherwise, is always short-lived. Modi has mistaken a one-night stand for a marriage of convenience.
India's hammer blow is proof that Trump is fickle with friendship. Playing nice with Trump is mostly an act of futility. He only cares about short-term gains, hot photo opportunities, not long-term strategic relationships. He adopts a strictly utilitarian approach to relationship-building. No one should harbor any illusions of permanent ties. With Trump, geopolitical honeymoons last no longer than a lettuce.
India has deluded itself into thinking that it could play Russia or China against America, gleefully fishing in troubled waters and reaping the handsome rewards. It did not think twice about joining the QUAD a US-led alliance that targets China. But as soon as the tariff double whammy hit, Modi made a beeline for Beijing, hoping to cajole China into a joint anti-US strategy. But China remains wary as India is notorious for being opportunistic. Russia is equally coy, if not aloof. The truth is, India holds no trump card against America, as it chalks up a sizeable trade surplus with the US. Trump has little to fear from any Indian retaliatory measures. There is no tit-for-tat in the cards. All it has is a high-decibel anger that only proves its impotence. India has been too clever by half in playing major powers against each other, with a reputation for being unreliable and situationally changeable. India could of course threaten to withdraw from the QUAD, a grouping made up of Australia, India, Japan and the US, to weaken America's anti-China alliance. But Trump, unlike previous US leaders, has little appetite to play the alliance game. Trump has another concern: he can't afford to look weak against India, when he has already blinked in his eyeball-to-eyeball standoff with China. In this titanic clash of egos, Trump holds all the aces. Modi is left with only a pathetic pair of deuces. He has nothing to bluff with. India is no China.
Trump has wangled an invitation to visit China. But India's humiliation and Trump's U-turn is a warning to the Chinese not to put too much stock in the upcoming visit. Yes, he wants to befriend the Chinese, but only because he will be hogging the headlines in Beijing. The visit may not translate into any real icebreaking between the two economic rivals. China plays the long game and is wise to Trump's ways. To borrow Teddy Roosevelt's famous words: the Chinese are speaking softly and carrying a big stick. The China nut is hard to crack, while India has no bargaining chips in its pocket. Trump's unpredictability may have unsettled other countries into submission. But his method of madness holds no water with cool-headed China. Let's see how Trump spins his eventual deal with China, a deal he desperately wants to clinch. Let's see how he talks up a defeat into a victory. The Chinese see through his game, and they have him by the testicles. They don't need to bend or blink, as Trump runs head-first into the Great Wall of China. He will need more than his usual bag of silly PR gimmicks. In going toe to toe with Trump, the Chinese look inscrutable and unplayable. India, by contrast, is dangling out there on a limb and a prayer. Not even a heaven of Indian gods can save Modi from the big bad US bully.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Philip Yeung:
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