By Tom Fowdy
This week US President Donald Trump announced he would be sending more US military aid to Ukraine. The announcement comes despite the general ethos and impression that his administration is opposed to funding Kyiv, as well as the MAGA camp in general, but nonetheless follows his perception that Putin predictably isn't interested in negotiations or peace at all, much to his frustration.
Trump, of course, announced the move in a very "MAGA" way (as I predicted he would as early as November), that he would not be "donating" weapons in the way Biden was altruistically, but that he would be "selling" them to Europe to give to Ukraine, therefore benefiting American jobs. As this announcement went out, underhanded leaks appeared in various newspapers claiming the President would ask Ukraine to strike Moscow, and may give them the weapons and capabilities (including Tomahawk Missiles) to do so. The move is an obvious negotiating ploy, and is classic Trump in so many ways.
Am I surprised? No, I'm not at all. The narrative that liberal centrist media have crafted that Donald Trump is a paid-for or "owned" stooge of the Kremlin is a product of the dramatic, hysterical, and accusatory, if not outright toxic, culture of US politics and has no basis. While it is true the President is more sympathetic to Russia than the democrats would like, to categorise him as "pro" or "working on behalf of Moscow" is a self-reinforced feedback loop and representative of how global politics has deteriorated into little more than petty labelling in recent years. It fundamentally misrepresents Trump and his administration's strategic goal.
The priority foreign policy goal of Donald Trump's administration right now is to end the war in Ukraine. When we say "end," we define it vaguely, as in terms of a ceasefire, and almost certainly not a peace treaty. While the most ardent supporters of Ukraine have convinced themselves that nothing less than a total defeat of Moscow is acceptable, this is unrealistic, if not outright dangerous. Trump wants to freeze the conflict because he sees it as an unwelcome sideshow to his main foreign policy agenda and wishes to primarily target China. This does not mean capitulation to Putin, or giving him the keys to Kyiv, but simply to put it on ice.
Russia, however, sees the current status quo as unacceptable to change it at that. Why? Because Ukraine still exists independently, is receiving Western backing, and is increasingly Western-aligned, the fundamental strategic goal of Putin's invasion in the first place has been unmet. Thus, Trump expressed his frustrations that Putin acts all "nice" but ultimately says one thing and does another. As a result, it is logical that, because Trump's goal of a quick resolution is being impeded, he will resort to his classic playbook, which is to escalate and threaten audacious, unthinkable courses of action to force Moscow to the negotiating table.
I predicted this would happen in November when he was re-elected, that even if Trump wants to end the war, he will be prepared, as a last resort, to escalate further and more extensively than Biden was willing to do so. Trump's modus operandi is escalatory, coercive diplomacy with the staged persona of a madman. I learnt this very early on from his "fire and fury" approach to North Korea in 2017. He engages in theatrics, posts threats on social media, and creates genuine fear in his adversaries to the point that they must at least postpone their goals and go on a charm offensive. If you escalate against Donald Trump, he escalates back, creating a dangerous game where you absolutely do not call his bluff.
Thus, Trump won't just sit idly while Putin grinds away, giving gestures to the concept of peace, but not acting on it, he will likely escalate and increase pressure on the Kremlin by various means. Once he has achieved this, he will inevitably declare victory and depict himself as a peacemaker. Trump is an unconventional individual; he tears up norms, he acts in unprecedented ways, and does not conform to "normal" ways of doing things, but he's hardly a puppet of the Kremlin; this is liberal polybabble.
However, on a final note, we can't predict how things will ultimately turn out. Just because Trump utilises aggressive methods towards a certain goal doesn't mean he achieves it. I refer you to an early tweet made by the President in January 2017, where he said, "Kim Jong Un wants to develop a nuclear missile to hit the United States, it won't happen!" and guess what? It did. These flowery summits achieved a nice interlude, but it didn't last. That's because Trump is ultimately vested most in the appearance of success, and not the delivery of it thereof, and Putin will certainly seek to play to his ego in the same way.
Hence, even if Trump escalates, we know it probably won't last, and thus the accusations of being a Kremlin asset certainly will, true or false.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
Opinion | HK's market boom defies the naysayers and shows the city's value remains
Opinion | Trump's MAGA stage managing of supporting Ukraine
Opinion | Did China really say Russia can't lose in Ukraine, how plausible is it
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