By Nina Wang
In the first half of this year, the new share market in Hong Kong has witnessed a strong recovery, with a fundraising amount of 102.1 billion yuan, ranking first globally. Since 2020, although the global economic downturn risks have significantly increased and the uncertainty of trade policies has posed certain troubles to the short-term economic outlook of Hong Kong, the sustained and steady growth of the mainland economy and the various support measures of the HKSAR government have provided support for the Hong Kong economy. Hong Kong has accelerated its integration into the national development and has benefited from China's dual circulation economic development strategy of domestic and international cycles, with remarkable results in various measures to revive the economy.
In 2020, due to the global pandemic shock, Hong Kong's GDP contracted by 6.1% year-on-year, the largest historical decline. From 2021 to 2024, Hong Kong entered a gradual recovery period. In the first quarter of 2025, the year-on-year GDP growth rate accelerated to 3.1%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9%, mainly driven by exports and investment. In terms of foreign trade, it shrank by 1.5% throughout 2020, but rebounded significantly in 2025. The data released by the Hong Kong government's Census and Statistics Department yesterday showed that in the first quarter of 2025, Hong Kong's goods exports increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and in April 2025, the value of goods exports soared by 14.7% year-on-year, with significant growth in the mainland and Asian markets. In terms of service trade, service exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, accelerating for two consecutive quarters, mainly benefiting from the recovery of tourism and financial activities. Overall, goods exports, service exports, and the financial sector have performed well.
The social stability of Hong Kong and the expectation that the central government will continue to introduce favourable policies to support the economic development of Hong Kong are conducive to the accelerated recovery of the Hong Kong economy. Deloitte recently raised its forecast for the total IPO amount in Hong Kong this year, expecting that there will be 80 new shares listed throughout the year, raising a total of 200 billion yuan. The fundraising amount has been raised by 33% to 54% compared with the earlier forecast of 130 billion to 150 billion yuan. In the future, Hong Kong is expected to continuously enhance its competitiveness in the financial field and leap from an international financial center to a global financial center.
According to the different scopes of resource agglomeration and radiation influence, the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI) divides all global financial centers into four levels: Global financial centers, International financial centers, National financial centers, and Regional financial centers. Global financial centers refer to international cities with global influence in terms of financial resource agglomeration and radiation. Their main characteristics are a sound financial system, a large financial market size, and an extremely high degree of financial internationalization. They are the gathering centers of global financial institutions and intermediary service institutions, the innovation and pricing centers of financial products and services, and the training and gathering centers of international financial talents. They play the role of leaders in the global financial market and the development of the financial industry.
In the past three decades, Hong Kong's financial industry has developed rapidly, and its status as an international financial center has been significantly enhanced. Various international research and comparisons show that this small and open economy of Hong Kong has gradually become one of the few main international financial and business centers in the world today. With the further rise of the Asian economy represented by China and the evolution of the world economy towards a multi-polar pattern of Europe, America, and Asia, Asia urgently needs and should have a global financial center that is commensurate with the scale of the Asian economy and comparable to New York and London. In terms of economic size, radiation capacity, and comprehensive national strength, the global financial center representing Asia should be located in China. Within the scope of Asia, Hong Kong's financial center has the highest level of financial openness, free and convenient cross-border capital flows, and its financial system and regulatory system are highly in line with international standards. It has the most advantageous and basic conditions for building a global financial center.
In recent years, the national strategy has continuously supported the status of Hong Kong as an international financial center and has introduced a series of policies to promote the in-depth financial integration and development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The country's major plans, major projects, and important policies have also clearly stated that the central government supports Hong Kong in building a core strategic platform for China to participate in the global allocation of resources and to strengthen its external radiation influence. Hong Kong's financial market has a high degree of internationalization, and its system is highly in line with international standards. Its innovative development plays an irreplaceable role in the country's external strategy. However, compared with New York, London, Tokyo, and Shanghai, Hong Kong's own economic scale is not sufficient to support the construction of a global financial center. In the future, Hong Kong should deeply integrate into the Greater Bay Area to make up for its "shortcomings". As a global financial center for China and Asia, providing an efficient financing platform, Hong Kong is expected to fully meet the capital and high-end element needs of China's development as a large economic entity by strengthening financial infrastructure construction and financial innovation, and tool development. In addition, Hong Kong needs to strengthen the construction of a strong commodity trading market to play an active and effective role in China's efforts to gain global pricing power in bulk commodities and stabilize the supply of primary production factors. It should also focus on strengthening innovative risk management services and tools to promote further integration of China's financial system with the international financial system and enhance China's financial discourse power and influence.
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