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What's next for Israel-Iran conflict? Four possible scenarios

World
2025.06.23 11:12
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On the evening of June 21, US President Donald Trump announced that the US military had conducted airstrikes that "completely destroyed" three Iranian nuclear facilities. (Reuters)

On the evening of June 21, US President Donald Trump announced that the US military had conducted airstrikes that "completely destroyed" three Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran has called the US attacks "a barbaric act that violates international law," asserting Iran's right to defend its national security and interests. Countries like China and Russia have issued statements condemning the US assault, warning of severe repercussions. Meanwhile, Iran and Israel have entered a new round of mutual attacks. Analysts suggest that US involvement could push the region into disaster, with potential global ramifications. 

What's next for Israel-Iran conflict: Four scenarios that could unfold

Scenario 1: Escalation of Iran-Israel conflict

As of now, Iran has not attacked US military bases in the Middle East, nor has it targeted US allies like Saudi Arabia or closed the Strait of Hormuz. However, these actions remain possible elements of Iran's retaliation strategy. Yemen's Houthi forces announced on June 22 that they would resume attacks on US vessels in the Red Sea.

Scenario 2: Regime change in Iran

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains alive, but even if he were to be assassinated, the Iranian regime would not necessarily collapse as a result. Should the conflict escalate, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) might take over the reins of power, potentially installing a successor even more hardline than Khamenei. Alternatively, Iran could descend into prolonged chaos or civil war, with various factions vying for control in a power struggle.

Scenario 3: Iran accelerates nuclear development

On June 22, Iran's Atomic Energy Organization declared that the country would not abandon its nuclear development program despite the airstrikes. Experts believe the US attack may complicate the Iranian nuclear issue further rather than resolve it. The assault may also strengthen Iran's resolve to develop nuclear weapons.

Scenario 4: Return to negotiations?

Before Israel's June 13 attack on Iran, Tehran had been engaged in nuclear agreement talks with the US. On June 22, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran has not yet decided to close the door to diplomatic dialogue. However, public opinion suggests that the likelihood of renewed US-Iran negotiations in the near future has diminished significantly following the airstrikes.

(Source: Ta Kung Pao)

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Tag:·Iran-Israel conflict· US airstrikes· Iran nuclear facilities· Middle East tensions· US-Iran negotiations

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