Recent speculation has suggested that Apple plans to shift all iPhone production for the US market to India as early as 2026. However, analysts remain skeptical, with some outright dismissing the feasibility of such a move.
According to a report by The Financial Times, cited by China News Service, Sanyam Chaurasia, a senior analyst at Canalys, stated that it is highly unlikely for Apple to completely transfer production for the US market to India by 2026. Chaurasia noted that in the first quarter of 2025, India is expected to account for approximately 21% of global iPhone production, with the remaining 79% still coming from China. By the end of 2025, India's share is projected to increase slightly to 25–26%.
Chaurasia added that Apple would need substantial investment to add more production lines to boost capacity, but sourcing components from China during this transition could become increasingly challenging.
The report also highlighted that Ming-chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, was among the first to observe Apple's accelerated shift to India. In early April, Kuo pointed out that assembly lines in China producing iPhones for the US market had been halted. He suggested that Apple plans to begin producing all US-bound iPhones in India starting this year. However, analysts believe achieving this goal would require India—currently focused on producing lower-end iPhones—to more than double its current production capacity to assemble the estimated 60 million iPhones destined for the US market.
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