Recent reports regarding the potential for a strong earthquake in Japan have sparked widespread attention. According to Japanese media, the government's latest risk assessment report on the Nankai Trough earthquake has raised the likelihood of such an event occurring within the next 30 years from 70% to 80%.
The earthquake could affect a vast area from Okinawa in the west to Fukushima in the east, potentially resulting in 298,000 casualties and estimated economic losses of up to US$18 trillion. This warning has cast a shadow over Japan's tourism industry, particularly impacting the Hong Kong travel market and the aviation sector.
Japan has long been known for its seismic activity due to its unique geographical position. The Nankai Trough, located at the convergence of the Pacific and Eurasian tectonic plates, experiences frequent geological activity, making it a high-risk area for earthquakes. The last significant earthquake in this region, the 1946 "Shōwa Nankai Earthquake," reached a magnitude of 8.0 and resulted in at least 1,330 fatalities. In response, the Japanese government has begun regularly publishing risk assessments to implement preventative measures against potential future disasters.
As news of the increased earthquake risk spread, enthusiasm among Hong Kong residents for traveling to Japan has noticeably waned. Easter, typically a peak travel time for Hong Kongers, has seen many alter their plans due to frequent earthquakes in Southeast Asia and rumors of a major earthquake in Japan. According to the Executive Director of Travel Agency Zongheng Travel, Yuen Chan-ning, the number of tour groups traveling to Japan during Easter has drastically decreased from ten groups daily to five. To regain traveler confidence, agencies have introduced additional security measures, such as full refunds for travelers if a magnitude 5 or higher earthquake occurs during their trip. Despite these efforts, the response has not been as effective as hoped.
Furthermore, Hong Kong's aviation industry has also been significantly affected. Social media posts indicate that Hong Kong Airlines will reduce flights to Japan between May and June, decreasing routes to Fukuoka by 24, Nagoya by 10, and Sapporo by 14. On the evening of April 15, Hong Kong Airlines confirmed that due to low passenger bookings on certain routes, it would reduce flight frequencies and notify affected passengers about changes, offering alternative arrangements or refunds. Similarly, Greater Bay Airlines adjusted its flights between Hong Kong and Tokushima, cutting back from three to two flights per week starting May 12, citing market conditions and changes in consumer demand.
In light of this situation, the Chinese Embassy in Japan acted swiftly, issuing a warning on April 14 for Chinese nationals in Japan to prepare for potential earthquakes. The embassy advised residents to enhance their awareness of safety measures, stay informed about earthquake self-rescue knowledge, and stock up on emergency supplies. They also recommended monitoring earthquake activity and disaster information through mobile apps, confirming nearby evacuation sites, and adhering to local government directives.
Regarding the impact of the earthquake risk warning, the Executive Director of The Travel Industry Council of Hong Kong (TIC), Fanny Yeung, suggested that this may prompt more Hong Kong residents to consider domestic travel. With the continuous improvement of the high-speed rail network, the number of train stations accessible from Hong Kong has increased to about 100, and fares remain stable during holidays, making travel more convenient and economical. Additionally, some Hong Kong travelers are shifting their destinations to Europe, Taiwan, Turkey, and Dubai.
Looking ahead, while Japan's earthquake risk warning has affected its tourism market and aviation industry, it also presents growth opportunities for other travel destinations and routes. As travelers increasingly prioritize safety in their decision-making, tourism operators must adapt to changing consumer demands and adjust their products and services accordingly. At the same time, travelers should enhance their awareness of risks and carefully consider the safety of their chosen destinations to ensure a secure and enjoyable travel experience.
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