China's 2025 GDP growth target has been set at around 5%, as outlined in the Government Work Report. Ta Kung Wen Wei interviewed Liu Ying, a researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, to provide an in-depth analysis of this target.
Question 1: Why 5%?
According to Liu Ying, the 5% growth target is based on several key factors:
- China's potential economic growth rate naturally aligns with this figure.
- The foundation of 2024's 5% GDP growth supports a stable projection.
- China's massive and highly potential market demand sustains growth.
- Government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand provide strong support.
Conclusion: The target is well-justified, neither overly aggressive nor overly conservative.
Question 2: Is 5% Too High or Too Low?
Liu Ying highlights the complexities of the global economic environment:
- Rising protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and a global economic slowdown pose challenges.
- China's economic policies need time to take full effect, including investment, consumption, and trade (the "three driving forces" of growth).
- China's economic growth remains among the highest globally, and its contribution to the world economy continues to lead.
Conclusion: Considering both domestic and international factors, the target is scientific and reasonable.
Question 3: Can This Target Be Achieved?
Liu Ying expresses strong confidence in China's ability to meet the 5% target, citing:
- New quality productive forces driven by AI and technological advancements, boosting industrial transformation.
- Rapid development of new economic drivers, strengthening the supply side.
- Expanding domestic demand, with China's vast market gradually unleashing its full potential.
- Policy momentum, with ongoing reform and opening-up efforts yielding positive effects.
Conclusion: Confidence is high, growth momentum is strong, and achieving the target is highly feasible.
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