This space visitor, with a diameter equivalent to that of a small shopping mall (40-90 meters), has been preliminarily calculated to have about a 2 percent chance of colliding with Earth in 2032, according to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.
NASA has further decreased the chance of an impact from asteroid 2024 YR4 to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, to 0.28 percent, according to the latest NASA estimate on Thursday (Feb. 20, local time).
Experts introduce 2024 YR4, which is moving along its elliptical rotational orbit, passing near Earth's orbit every four years or so, according to China Daily. When it is relatively close to Earth in its orbit, large-aperture astronomical telescopes will be able to observe it. Therefore, the period from the end of last year to the beginning of this year was a good observation window, and we will have another opportunity to monitor it in 2028.
Humans have already taken a solid step on the road to proactive planetary defense with the successful implementation of the first test mission for asteroid defense in 2022.
So don't panic! Once we have a more accurate calculation of 2024 YR4's orbit, we'll be able to determine the next steps in defense.
Having the ability to defend doesn't mean it's possible to just blow it up. Defenses include pushing it out of its original orbit by launching a spacecraft, like gently pushing a speeding truck, which, if deployed three to four years in advance, could deflect it away from its intersection with Earth.
It is also possible to evacuate people before it hits the Earth in order to minimize its impact.
In the meantime, the international community has established a graded response mechanism. Since 2013, the international organizations International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) have been responsible for monitoring and providing warnings about asteroids that may pose an impact risk.
An asteroid with a diameter of several tens of meters, if it impacts Earth without any human defense, can cause damage over an area of thousands of square kilometers, equivalent to the size of a large city. An asteroid with a diameter of around 10 kilometers can lead to large-scale extinction of species.
China has never been absent in this action to guard the Earth. At a scientific conference held in Beijing in 2018, Chinese scientists explored cutting-edge science and key technologies for asteroid monitoring and early warning, safety and defense, and resource utilization.
The Near-Earth Object Telescope at the Purple Mountain Observatory and the Wide Field Survey Telescope, a collaboration between the University of Science and Technology of China and the Purple Mountain Observatory, have shown remarkable results in recent years. Chinese scientists have discovered more than 60 near-Earth asteroids, effectively providing Earth with a "space security scanner".
From monitoring and early warning to defense rehearsal, China's program is becoming a key link in the global planetary defense network, and China is actively assuming the responsibility of a great power.
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