According to Xinhua News, on Jan. 20, local time, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order that postpones the enforcement of the "sell or ban" law for TikTok for 75 days. This gives hope to many American users of the platform.
Since his first term, Trump has claimed that TikTok poses a national security threat, initiating a series of controversies starting from the executive order on August 6, 2020. Now, he has signed another order extending the timeline, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the Trump administration's influence on TikTok.
The day before (Jan. 19), TikTok released a statement saying that Trump provided necessary clarifications to its internet service providers, ensuring they would not face penalties for maintaining TikTok's normal operations. TikTok also expressed its intent to work with Trump to find a long-term solution for its availability in the U.S. However, insiders from ByteDance emphasized that no agreements had been reached with the U.S. government.
Despite this reprieve, how TikTok will seek a "long-term solution" within 75 days has sparked further discussion.
Legal Pathways Diminish, Return to "Risk Mitigation" Approach
With 170 million users in the U.S., TikTok's influence is evident but also raises concerns for the U.S. government.
On Aug. 6, 2020, Trump ordered ByteDance to divest its U.S. operations within 90 days. In Feb. 2021, the Biden administration paused plans to force a sale for review. In April 2024, Biden signed a bipartisan bill requiring ByteDance to sell TikTok to a non-Chinese company within 270 days or face a ban. In December, TikTok asked the Supreme Court to declare the forced sale unconstitutional.
On Jan. 17, 2025, the Supreme Court upheld the ban on TikTok in the U.S. Although TikTok resumed services after a 14-hour shutdown, the ruling marked the end of its legal challenges, shifting the focus back to administrative "risk mitigation" and "qualified divestiture."
Risk mitigation has long been a key communication strategy between TikTok and the U.S. government. To address data security concerns, TikTok proposed the "Project Texas," which involved isolating its U.S. operations and providing a regulatory window for the government.
Under this plan, TikTok migrated its U.S. operations to Oracle's Texas servers in 2022, allowing Oracle to oversee data management. However, the "Project Texas" did not satisfy Congress, which subsequently voted overwhelmingly to pass the TikTok ban in 2024.
Currently, Trump has proposed two measures: extending the enforcement deadline through an executive order and suggesting a joint venture where the U.S. holds a 50% stake.
An industry insider indicated that the Department of Justice may lead a coordinated effort involving multiple departments to initiate a new round of risk mitigation for TikTok, potentially addressing issues related to capital, data, algorithms, and personnel.
Dong Ting, an assistant professor at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, noted the potential for mitigation. She explained that both parties have exhibited some flexibility in the policy environment. Trump emphasized the need to find solutions that protect national security while avoiding sudden platform shutdowns, and some Democratic senators are also advocating for extending the ban's deadline to allow time for negotiation.
However, the uncertainties surrounding this situation cannot be overlooked.
Ke Jing, an assistant research professor at the Institute of International Relations of SASS, stated that achieving risk mitigation measures largely depends on whether TikTok and the Trump administration can negotiate an acceptable solution that persuades Congress to reconsider previous legislation. A potential point of contention is the proposed 50% capital control, which may become a focal point of negotiation. "If the gap between their expectations is too wide, there's a risk of negotiations failing," Ke noted.
It's important to highlight that personalized recommendation algorithms are now included in China's export technology catalog, meaning that related technology exports require government approval. Dong added, "Any related transactions will need approval from the Chinese government, which may be incorporated into broader bilateral trade negotiations. Additionally, even if a rectification plan is reached, ensuring effective implementation will be crucial."
Presidential Authority: A Lifeline for TikTok?
In the U.S. political system, the president holds significant executive discretion in national security matters. Could this provide TikTok with an alternative route?
"The president's role can be very influential," Ke pointed out. "If Trump decides to maximize his executive power, he could refuse to enforce the TikTok ban throughout his four-year term... Theoretically, that's possible."
However, Ke emphasized that Trump's use of executive orders could conflict with congressional legislation, potentially leading to legal challenges. "As long as Trump issues an executive order, the Department of Justice will follow his directive. Whether this will lead to lawsuits is another matter."
Dong noted that while presidential power appears substantial, it is subject to various constraints. Trump could extend the enforcement deadline via executive order and instruct the DOJ not to penalize violations during that period. "However, such power must still be exercised within the legislative framework. If a new president takes office in four years, the executive order could be overturned, and service providers might still face legal repercussions."
According to The Washington Post, some legal experts are skeptical of Trump's strategy, arguing that presidential directives cannot completely override laws passed with overwhelming bipartisan support.
Dong also pointed out that the intertwined interests within TikTok's commercial ecosystem, the platform's influence in the media market, and whether Congress can modify laws to provide a clear compliance framework are all critical factors to consider. "An executive order cannot serve as a definitive solution," she stated.
Business vs. Strategic Issues
Beyond national security rhetoric, TikTok, with its 170 million users, has become a tool in U.S. domestic political power dynamics, especially during election seasons, as both parties vie for young voters.
An anonymous industry insider suggested that the TikTok issue reflects the broader challenge of how domestic social networks interact with both parties, given that information flow is crucial to public sentiment. Trump's shifting stance toward TikTok is seen as an effort to win over the platform's large user base.
Ke noted that conservatives lack their own social media platforms, which are predominantly controlled by liberals. "This is a key area where Trump seeks to break through. Having been banned on social platforms, he understands the importance of having a voice. Whether during the election or in pursuing ambitious reform agendas, Trump needs platforms like TikTok for support."
Although TikTok is actively trying to adjust its political stance and connect with conservatives, the effectiveness of these efforts remains to be seen.
Some core members of Trump's inner circle are reportedly cautious about the situation. According to Politico on Jan. 15, Trump's nominee for Attorney General, Pam Bondi, vowed to uphold the law on other issues, but when asked if she would ensure the enforcement of the TikTok ban, she was evasive, despite Trump urging the Supreme Court to delay the law's execution.
Ke believes that the attitudes of hardline figures within Trump's team, like Marco Rubio, toward the TikTok ban and Trump's push to retain TikTok, remain to be clarified.
Meanwhile, Biden warned in his farewell speech that unregulated social media platforms and artificial intelligence threaten the truth itself.
"Regulating tech companies has become a bipartisan consensus," Dong noted.
At the congressional level, power dynamics will also play a role. Historically, bipartisan checks have made it challenging to impose constraints on social networks. Diao Daming, a professor at Renmin University and deputy director of the Center for American Studies, recently wrote that the TikTok ban was orchestrated by "anti-China hawks" in the House, eventually passing with bipartisan support amid the backdrop of the Israel-Palestine conflict. "This reflects a common agenda among certain anti-China forces within the political elite of both parties, as well as the prevailing negative perceptions toward China."
"Although the Republicans control the House, their majority is slim. Additionally, proposals that contradict bipartisan consensus face significant hurdles in Congress," Ke pointed out.
Interestingly, Ke observed that a surge of "TikTok refugees" towards Chinese apps might prompt both parties in the U.S. to reconsider the TikTok ban. "The consensus against allowing a Chinese-owned platform to handle vast amounts of U.S. user data is evident. However, they may realize that banning the platform does not achieve their political goals and may lead to unintended consequences. They need to rethink the complexities of enforcing the TikTok ban," she stated.
Dong noted that TikTok's long-term prospects may hinge on breakthroughs in three areas: maintaining an innovative edge in business operations to reinforce its irreplaceability in the U.S. market; proposing viable compliance plans that balance national security concerns with commercial interests; and reaching some level of consensus on tech cooperation between China and the U.S. at a broader strategic level.
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