Opinion | Looking forward to steady and healthy development of China-US relations

By Shen Yi

On Jan. 20, Trump was sworn in again, becoming one of the few presidents in U.S. history to serve non-consecutive terms. This historic political scene not only signifies profound changes in the U.S. political ecosystem but also brings complex and subtle new signals for China-US relations. As President Xi Jinping emphasized during his phone call with Trump, both sides should strengthen cooperation based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, and undertake more significant, practical, and beneficial initiatives for both countries and the world, allowing the two giant ships of China and the U.S. to navigate along a stable, healthy, and sustainable course. This is not only an expectation for both sides but also a common aspiration of the international community in the context of global instability.

Trump's inaugural speech featured more distinct personal political assertions and emotional characteristics, which can be seen as a relatively closer expression of Trump's true inner thoughts and governance plans. The core feature of the speech, while still revolving around themes like "Make America Great Again" and "A Golden Age," essentially focuses on waging war against opponents within the Washington swamp: Trump rarely launched direct attacks against the Democratic administration at all levels, from federal to state. Throughout the speech, there were multiple instances where Trump's core team and some supporters stood up and applauded, while the area occupied by former President Biden and former Vice President Harris remained visibly still, creating a dramatic visual impact. This scene can be seen as a microcosm of Trump's focus and potential reactions during his second term.

The speech prioritized domestic issues.

In terms of foreign strategy, compared to the grandiose rhetoric during his campaign and power transition, Trump's wording at the inauguration displayed a more pragmatic tendency: the exposition of foreign strategy was relatively limited, with tariff issues briefly mentioned in a way that praised former President William McKinley, without insisting on specific targets or amounts; the only mention of China in geopolitical issues was regarding the Panama Canal, which, rather than reinforcing the notion of a "China Threat," focused on solidifying ambitions regarding the Panama Canal; descriptions of international trade adhered to "America First" but did not include specific content to stimulate capital and market ambitions. Compared to Trump's previous image, there was a noticeable shift towards moderation and pragmatism.

In a sense, Trump's inaugural speech reflects a basic understanding of prioritizing domestic and foreign issues, and this domestic focus can provide a relatively stable external environment for China-US relations, opening a better avenue for future easing, stability, and positive development of the relationship.

The leader's phone call brings stability to U.S.-China relations.

Nevertheless, as previously mentioned, Trump still made unfounded accusations against China regarding the Panama Canal, which not only reflects the deep impact of certain misconceptions but also showcases the complexity and diversity in Trump's understanding and handling of China-US relations.

Comprehensive information suggests that China's demonstrated steady, responsible, and excellent systematic gaming capability is the main reason for the positive changes in China-US relations: before the inaugural speech, China maintained low-key yet effective pragmatic communication with Trump's team, ensuring effective and accurate information transmission and facilitating visits from high-level Chinese representatives, creating corresponding channels and mechanisms for the development of bilateral relations; the leaders' phone call became a key mechanism for injecting stability into China-US relations, and Trump's understanding of the China-US summit resonated effectively with China's responsible management strategy for China-US relations.

In addition to communication and exchanges, during the transition between the two U.S. presidents, China consistently provided precisely designed effective responses to the previous U.S. government's sanctions on China-US economic and trade relations and high-tech industries, as well as the resulting damage to China-US relations, injecting more information regarding the changes in the balance of power between the two countries, and moderately encouraging the U.S. team to adopt a more open-minded and pragmatic approach to contribute positively to the healthy and constructive development of China-US relations.

Although Trump's inaugural speech released some positive signals, it is essential to remember that "frozen rivers do not freeze overnight." The future of China-US relations remains full of uncertainties, and it is far from being secure merely due to Trump's inauguration. Specifically, the following challenges and negative factors warrant close attention:

Improving the understanding of China requires efforts from all parties.

First, the persistent negative political factors that resemble a ratchet effect cannot be overlooked, especially the negative impact of the domestic political structure in America. The structural characteristics of U.S. domestic party politics determine that even if Trump can control his team, it is challenging to genuinely reverse or change the constraints of the domestic political structure, particularly considering the significance of political flow and mobilization to Trump. Any positive signal, even certain exploratory practices, will inevitably face challenges, shocks, and threats from U.S. domestic politics. Avoiding the positive adjustment of China policy becoming a sacrifice in the bipartisan struggle is one of Trump's core challenges. Of course, looking at Trump's signing of an executive order to suspend the enforcement of the TikTok ban from day one of his presidency, we have reason to maintain cautiously optimistic expectations and continue to make efforts.

Second, attention must be given to seeking solutions to Cold War thinking and the cognitive construction problems arising from erroneous ideological frameworks. Chinese leaders recognize that cognition is the first key to China-US relations. Some phrases in Trump's inaugural speech indicate that there are still significant deviations in his strategic understanding of China. Furthermore, some individuals and interest groups in the U.S. habitually solidify erroneous strategic cognition toward China as a core source of their political influence. Overcoming this challenge and finding more new forms of equal exchanges, akin to how Chinese and American netizens engage on platforms like Xiaohongshu, to genuinely improve the U.S. strategic misunderstandings towards China requires joint efforts from all parties. Before achieving substantial progress, it is evident that a cautiously optimistic perspective should continue to be maintained.

Third, it is necessary to effectively construct ways to avoid specific types of actors interfering with the return of China-US relations to a healthy development track. There are military-industrial complexes in the U.S., and in specific regions, there are countries and non-state actors who feel discontent and anxious about the positive development of China-US relations. They will use various means to foster erroneous understandings and undermine efforts to restore China-US relations to a healthy development trajectory. Effectively addressing such shocks and challenges should become a new focus of attention.

In Trump's 2025 inaugural speech, although he continues to uphold the core idea of "America First," he releases a certain degree of pragmatic and adjusted signals that can help China-US relations develop cautiously and optimistically. This change provides a new opportunity for China-US relations. With joint efforts from both sides, China-US relations are expected to move towards a more stable and healthy development trajectory.

(Source: Wen Wei Po)

The author is a professor at Fudan University.

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