Opinion | What should we make of Trump's invitation to Xi

By Tom Fowdy

In a surprise move, Donald Trump invited Xi Jinping to his presidential inauguration. It is not yet known how China will respond to the invitation, with the Chinese Embassy in Washington D.C declining to comment. However, precedent usually involves the inviting party making some kind of political concessions in order to get such a privilege, hence when Queen Elizabeth II passed away and Xi was invited to her funeral, he did not attend but sent another high-ranking official.

Either way, the invitation comes as a surprise, not least when he has staffed his administration with raging China hawks including Marco Rubio, and moreover his comments have been laden with threats of assertive actions towards Beijing in the form of increased tariffs. Generally, this makes the mood pessimistic, yet with Donald Trump, the truth is: you can never really tell what he's going to do. Trump has always been unique in the sense that he is aggressive on one hand, but then holds an olive branch on the other, which the outgoing Biden Presidency was unwilling to give.

Donald Trump as an individual is pragmatic. Although he always wants things to be done his way, on his terms, he is not a NeoConservative or a zealot and takes a very personalized approach to foreign policy which contrasts sharply with the moralistic arbitrariness of other Presidents, despite who he may have appointed around him. Trump can be very harsh, and even dangerous to confront, but he also likes to make deals where he can and resolve things. Thus, he was willing to meet with Kim Jong Un in 2018-2019 and was also willing to make a first-stage trade deal with China in early 2020. This very much contrasts with the "Cold War mindset" of US foreign policy thinkers and elite. After all, it was only the fallout of the COVID pandemic that allowed the extreme anti-China hawks to take sway in the run-up to the election of that year.

Based on this, I have previously argued that it is in China's best interests to try and engage with a second Trump administration as opposed to antagonizing it and that any strategy of dealing with the United States should be premised on marginalizing the ultra-hawks with optimistic moves which shift the political paradigm against them, as opposed to doing provocative and controversial things which empower them. Herein is the fundamental strategic mistake Beijing made in 2020 when it became "combative" against US anti-China rhetoric amidst the pandemic.

I felt of course personally embittered at what America is doing, but now I am a bit older, and more mature and realize you need to play a smarter game, which is: If you are open, albeit not submissive, to what Donald Trump wants and you find a way to productively work with him, things will be better. Trump would absolutely kill the Cold War climate tomorrow if you allow him to claim a political victory for himself which he will give to Americans, which he is of course very good at selling. Donald Trump's ego is his number one priority, and moreover, the theatrics he goes to to claim his success is actually a good thing.

Trump is hawkish to China but he is diplomatic in his humble sort of way through his willingness to be amicable to Xi Jinping. Contrast this to Joe Biden who actually shunned most forms of engagement with China, followed up any meeting with hawkish measures, and refused to negotiate anything with Beijing at all including the Trump-era tariffs. Trump himself of course has repeatedly pledged to remove those tariffs if China gives him what he wants, he offers an exit ramp, whereas a Biden administration is much more geopolitically aggressive and uncompromising. Therefore, even if things are not great in the form of tariffs, product bans, or whatever, it is in China's interest and long-term focus to be restrained with this new administration and focus on diplomatic engagement.

Trump's invitation to Xi Jinping to attend this ceremony is a personal gesture and it would send a huge political signal to the most fanatical, Cold War, ultra-hawks throughout America and the world. China is usually tight about offering this kind of concession, but I personally believe they would be foolish to turn this down. This is an effective reset in relations that Biden would never, ever accept. Trump does audacious things, but he also opens the road to changing the status quo by doing so, this is a good opportunity.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.8.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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