Opinion | Analysis of Trump's return to White House and its impact on HK's development

With Trump's return to the presidency, his "America First" policy will significantly influence US foreign policy. In particular, Hong Kong's development may face new challenges in the areas of trade, technology, and geopolitics.

1. Intensification of Trade Conflicts

One of Trump's core policies during his tenure was to protect American industries, particularly targeting China. In the future, Trump may again resort to trade tariffs as a tool to gain short-term political benefits.

During his first term, China was considered America's main economic competitor, leading to a series of unilateral trade investigations, including Section 232, Section 201, and Section 301. These measures aimed to curb China's leading position in certain key industries. Trump has stated that if elected again, he would significantly increase tariffs on China, potentially up to 100%.

The Uniqueness of Hong Kong

Hong Kong's economy relies heavily on re-export trade, and the US is one of its important trading partners. In 2023, the US was Hong Kong's third-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade totaling HK$472.2 billion. Despite this, future trade policies may still impact Hong Kong's trade status, especially as the US may seek to undermine Hong Kong's role as a regional trading hub through new methods.

2. Strengthening of Technology Suppression

The tech sector is at the heart of US-China competition. The US first placed Huawei on an export control list in 2019, and this policy has continued to strengthen under both the Trump and Biden administrations. Chinese tech companies, especially those operating in Hong Kong, face increasing challenges.

The US's technology decoupling policy may deepen further, impacting personal and regional tech exchanges. Despite Hong Kong's efforts to build an international innovation and technology center, the US may take measures to hinder this process, such as restricting the export of high-tech products.

3. Transformation of Political Interference

The Trump administration is likely to intensify the use of geopolitical tactics against China, particularly by deepening the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and strengthening ties with India. Hong Kong plays a significant role in this strategy, as the US has long utilized it as a frontline to curb China's rise.

During Trump's first term, the US adopted a clearer "whole-of-government" strategy towards China, employing comprehensive and multi-faceted measures. In this context, US policies towards Hong Kong have undergone significant changes, showcasing features of "stakeholder binding" and "multi-dimensional interference." Fortunately, the central government has taken decisive action to improve Hong Kong's institutional framework and strengthen national security, making it increasingly difficult for the US to manipulate Hong Kong as it once did.

However, Hong Kong should remain vigilant. Even without the chaos caused by local opposition forces, the US may still target other objectives for manipulation. Earlier, Trump suggested that he would demand the release of individuals charged under Hong Kong's national security law, revealing a potential "pathway" for interference that Hong Kong must prepare for.

(Source: Ta Kung Pao)

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