Opinion | Move forward with confidence as democracy in US decays

By Liu Yongchun

November 5 is not only the voting day for the US presidential election but also the beginning of a new round of chaos in the US. If the Capitol riot four years ago revealed the fragility of the American democratic system, then today, four years later, the various tumultuous events surrounding the US elections and the underlying systemic issues make it clear to the world that the "American democracy" once revered by many is now in a state of deep decline. This is an objective fact that cannot be altered by any propaganda institution controlled by the US.

For Hong Kong, how should we view this election and the political situation it brings?

On one hand, we must maintain a clear understanding, because regardless of which party wins, the "containing China" policy will not change, and the global political and economic situation will become even more turbulent, potentially increasing the pressure on Hong Kong at any moment. On the other hand, we need to be confident in our path and system. With the support of the country, Hong Kong should leverage its unique advantages and proceed steadily, thus having the confidence to face all challenges.

The US election has been cited as a "model" by countless political textbooks and regarded as a "beacon in a dark world" by numerous politicians. However, just as the US withdrew from Afghanistan in ways no one could have imagined, the American "beacon" still exists in form but no longer leads to true democracy; instead, it has become a dangerous fuse leading to reefs and shallows.

US Presidential Election Has Become an Absurd Joke

Since the beginning of the election, the US has been rife with violence, bloodshed, and division, compounded by deception, lies, and the manipulation of a "deep state." Incidents such as lost ballots, fraudulent voter registrations, burned ballot boxes, attacks on voters, and deceased individuals and new immigrants participating in elections have made "American democracy" a joke. However, the concerns do not stop there. 

The renowned American political scientist Francis Fukuyama once proposed the "end of history" thesis, but ironically, even he, who once regarded US liberal democratic system as the final form of human civilization, has repeatedly changed his stance. In 2014, Foreign Affairs published Fukuyama's article "America in Decay - The Sources of Political Dysfunction," which pointed directly to America's entrapment in a quagmire of veto politics, severe political polarization, and widespread infiltration by interest groups, leading to a significant increase in the costs of collective action.

A poll conducted last year by the Pew Research Center revealed that 57% of Americans believe the US is not a model democracy, while 65% of respondents think that the democratic system needs significant reform. An increasing number of Americans are realizing that democracy is not the exclusive right of a few countries; it requires continuous improvement and development. Moreover, the US democracy index has consistently declined, dropping from a score of 8.05 in 2015—indicating a full democracy—to just 7.85 in 2022, plummeting to 30th in the world and becoming a genuine "flawed democracy."

The decline of the American democratic system is an undeniable fact, accelerating at an unprecedented pace; this is not good for the American people or for the world. What direction will a more divided and extreme president and government take the US?

Regardless of which party ultimately comes to power, whether it's Trump or Harris, the policy toward China will not undergo significant changes. It will either intensify the trade war or reinforce the "small yard and high fence" approach. This fundamentally reflects a basic reality: The US is essentially a global "empire," and a key characteristic of an "empire" is that its domestic interests depend on extensive exploitation of the overseas world. Therefore, the US cannot tolerate China's rise.

The System Gives Hong Kong More Confidence

However, the global situation is no longer something that the US can control single-handedly. The trend of the East rising and the West declining is constantly evolving, especially given the current dire state of the US and its "American democracy."

More importantly, China's development can no longer be swayed by American will. China adheres to the fundamental national policy of opening up to the outside world and firmly pursues a mutually beneficial and win-win open strategy, becoming a main stabilizer and driving force for global economic growth. China continues to contribute its wisdom, solutions, and strength to world peace and development. 

Under the "one country, two systems" framework, Hong Kong is backed by the motherland while connecting to the world, possessing irreplaceable advantages. Even if the US attempts to implement a Hong Kong strategy to contain China again, its energy, intensity, and scope will only continue to weaken, and Hong Kong has sufficient confidence to respond and resolve these challenges. The key lies in Hong Kong's determination to develop in the right direction, seize the opportunity window, and concentrate efforts to move swiftly toward its goals.

Reflecting, if the central government had not enacted the Hong Kong National Security Law in 2020 and if the legislative process for Article 23 of the Basic Law had not been completed, the national security defenses would not have been fortified, and the situation facing Hong Kong would have been even more perilous. Its capacity to respond to challenges would not be as strong as it is today. The facts demonstrate that with firm confidence and by following its path, "though the road may be long, it will be reached."

In 2023, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, predicted last year that neither party in the US would easily accept a loss in the 2024 election. This implies that a certain degree of "civil war" could occur in the US. According to him, the increasing division is accelerating the decline of American democracy.

Clearly, his prediction is becoming a reality.

(Source: Ta Kung Pao)

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