Opinion | Battle between genders: Who's worse in US presidential election?

By Zhou Dewu

With less than 24 hours until the voting deadline for the US presidential election, the dramatic and tumultuous election is reaching its conclusion, but there are still significant uncertainties regarding whether the results will be known that evening. The Democratic Party is most concerned that Trump may declare victory before all ballots are counted, which would complicate the subsequent counting process. However, the Biden-Harris administration claims to have developed contingency plans to expose any premature declarations using various media platforms. Still, over 60% of voters remain worried that complications may arise in the election's final stages.

In recent years, US states have continually modified election laws, making early voting mainstream, with "Election Day" gradually evolving into an "Election Season." As of noon Eastern Time on November 3, the number of early voters in the US has surpassed 76.29 million, accounting for 48% of the total votes cast in the 2020 election. Due to the pandemic, early voting in the 2020 election reached 103 million, nearly 70% of that year's total voters. Although enthusiasm for voting remains high this year, matching the previous election's turnout is a significant challenge. Notably, dissatisfaction with both party candidates has risen, leading to an increase in the proportion of voters choosing not to participate. In the next two days, candidates from both parties will strive to mobilize independent voters and their own party's apathetic voters to boost turnout.

For Harris, one piece of good news is that the US Supreme Court has ruled that provisional votes in Pennsylvania are valid.

On November 1, the Supreme Court denied a request from Republicans that would have denied thousands of Pennsylvanians a second chance to vote.  Unlike other swing states, Pennsylvania's early voting is limited to mail-in ballots, which must be placed in privacy envelopes and signed with the date and name. This year, over 9,000 mail-in ballots have been found to have defective envelopes.

For this issue, Republicans have appealed to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to declare these ballots invalid and not included in the total count. However, during the 2022 midterm elections, Pennsylvania's lower courts faced similar appeals, ultimately ruling that these voters could choose to go to polling places on Election Day to obtain provisional votes which would be set aside until their eligibility was confirmed. The Supreme Court justices believe that the defective envelopes do not disqualify these voters from participating in the election.

In the 2020 election, about 25,000 ballots were invalidated due to envelope issues, and this Supreme Court ruling benefits the Democrats, as most mail-in voters tend to be Democrats. The next question is how many voters with defective envelopes will receive timely information to obtain a remedy.

Another piece of good news for Harris comes from the traditional political stronghold of Iowa. A polling company released a survey showing Harris leading Trump by 47% to 44%, with independent voters and women moving away from Trump, especially women over 65, who support Harris over Trump at a rate of 2:1. However, another poll from Emerson College Polling shows Trump leading Harris by 9 percentage points in Iowa.

Iowa is a traditional Republican stronghold and an important bellwether in the US elections, particularly during the primary phase. The state has a strict six-week anti-abortion law, indicating that female voters are quite concerned about abortion rights. Multiple polls indicate that women support Harris at a significantly higher rate than Trump, and among early voters in swing states, women make up 55%, compared to 45% for men. If enthusiasm for voting among women on November 5 outpaces that of men, it will provide another perspective for observing the US election. The latest political dynamics in Iowa may give Harris a glimmer of hope.

Some say, "Whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the election," but for the Democrats, it's more accurate to say, "Whoever loses Pennsylvania loses the election." The Democrats cannot afford to lose any of their three "blue wall" states (the other two being Michigan and Wisconsin). Losing any of these states makes it nearly impossible to recover from the four (North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada). Polls show that in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, Harris leads Trump by 10%, making it unlikely for Trump to win this vote. Coupled with the three "blue wall" states, this would put the Democrats just over the minimum threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

For Trump to win, he must capture one of the "blue wall" states, and multiple polls indicate that the "blue wall" is beginning to crack.

Harris's bad news is that as Election Day approaches, an increasing number of voters may express their dissatisfaction with the Biden administration through their ballots, making it increasingly difficult for her to distance herself from Biden. Biden's national approval rating is below 40%, making him the second least popular president in history, just behind Carter, with 72% of people believing the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Historically, no party has been able to maintain control of the White House in the face of such widespread voter dissatisfaction. Will Harris be an exception? If so, it would suggest that while Americans may not like Harris, they fear Trump even more. If Trump wins the White House again, it would indicate that historical patterns are still in play, with voters prioritizing kitchen-table issues over abstract democratic ideals.

(Source: Ta Kung Pao)

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