Opinion | France's China engagement will lead Europe in its 'rebel' with a noble cause

By Augustus K. Yeung

With Biden now announcing that he's quitting, according to Hong Kong TVB today, a Trump win is more likely than ever.

With Trump on the helm, will Europe be as "obedient" to him as it has been to Biden? I doubt it – as there is fear of Trump supporting Putin in the conflict with Ukraine, and Trump as a Western leader has raised eyebrows, based on the way the Europeans behaved towards him in Trump's turn as the U.S. president.

France for one will be among the first to engage in distancing behavior from the U.S. which is seen as losing its luster in a world that is mired in economic malai in recent years, thanks to Washington's foreign anti-China policy.

America's leadership is now on the verge of crisis, and a Trump administration will accelerate this decline in America's global influence, especially in Asia-Pacific. For example, India (a member of SCO) is lately showing sign of "derisking" if not "decoupling" from America.

Why am I so sure of this shift of perception of America and the change of French attitude towards the U.S.? The French has on-and-off been a European power with a great pride, and they have a reason and a right to be so.

"The France-China relationship, it is safe to say, has seen a number of striking plot twists. During the 19th century, France colonized parts of China, including a part of Shanghai. Later, in 1964, with the French empire in decline, it became the first major Western power to recognize mainland China's communist government," said Conrad Bongard Hamilton, a postdoctoral research fellow with the School of Politics and International Relations at East China Normal University in Shanghai.

As France is now a major power in the EU – apart from Germany, it is worth noting its political inclinations, especially when the Trump administration may become a reality, and France's ties with China is significant in a world that is witnessing a major realignment of power.

So, it makes sense to start exploring any signs of change of heart as change is in the air after decades of American decadence in political economy all over the world – as opposed to a rising modern China, which is now determined to shift its gear up one significant notch in the direction of "high quality productive force" as was recently disclosed at the "third plenum".

Thus, culturally China and France are moving closer to each other. And European and Asian civilization may one day capture the world's attention and be a global trend.

Of all European leaders, Macron's relationship with Xi Jinping of China is most significant and monumental. President Macron is a significant "change agent", playing an active leading role in Europe's change of heart towards China, an inclination which has aroused the suspicion of Ursula von de Leyen, (an anti-China hawk) who has just been re-elected as the President of EU for a second term.

France's role of "rebellion" against the U.S. has its historic origins: former French President Charles De Gaul was often snubbed by the Americans in WWII when the U.S. army was playing a pivotal role in Europe. And President Macron has also been cheated by Biden as the Australian PM Morrison showed a change of heart when he decided to go nuclear with modernizing the naval submarine. And Macron felt cheated by both the U.S. and Australia for the foul play against French business interest. And Macron remembers!

In addition, as far as European security is concerned, Macron opted for diplomatic solutions when Putin threatened to make a move against Ukraine. The French president flew to Moscow for talks with Putin, but when he returned from his trip he was sidelined by Biden, who pressured all American allies to call to arms against Putin's Russia. And there was war!

Now the ruination of Ukraine and Europe in danger is a result of Biden's burden. But a change of U.S. president does not make France happy as Biden was deemed dictatorial, and Trump is seen as vulgar as opposed to fine French style of civilization, resulting in a clash of personal taste, or conflict of culture.

French President Charles De Gaul once viewed China as a "gigantic thing" and advised the nation "that we cannot afford to ignore [China]", and now Macron is on a mission, making France great again. But how?

"Macron's decision to try to maintain strong economic ties with China is…a reflection of business interests" observed Conrad Bongard Hamilton, who wrote an article, "Why big changes are unlikely in France's China policy," which was published in SCMP.

I strongly share his view that a French "hung parliament" would not change France's China policy as Macron's decision, power and influence will last until 2027, the French presidential election.

For his nation's pride, Macron has always been jockeying for European leadership. And that includes his ever-deepening engagement with the Chinese president who recently returned a visit, making France (in high profile) his first stop in a three-nation visits to Europe.

I smell a French "rebellion" in the air, which comes with a noble cause.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

To contact the writer, please direct email:AugustusKYeung@ymail.com

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