By Tom Fowdy
Europe is arguably at the biggest turning point it has experienced in the 21st century. Throughout history, the continent has faced many critical inflection points including 1914-1918, 1939-1945, and of course 1991. The year 2022, however, marked another turning point, which abruptly emerged with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The war has had a chilling impact on global politics which has ultimately ushered in a broader geopolitical, economic and ideological conflict, empowering a new generation of NeoConservatives in individuals such as Ursula Von Der Leyden.
This has had undeniable consequences for China, with the US having ramped up tensions over Taiwan to construct a broader narrative that Beijing represents a concurrent threat to global freedom. Indeed, the US is relishing in its accusations that Xi Jinping is backing Putin in the Ukraine conflict, precisely because it is geopolitical malpractice to fulfil the west's wishes on this war when the primary enemy afterwards, will be themselves. It's a double-edged sword, and seen as China has placed great emphasis on its geopolitical partnership with Moscow, as well as publicly opposing NATO expansion, Beijing has vested its stakes not in escalating a disastrous wider conflict, but in the necessity of a balanced settlement between all parties implicitly recognising that Russian defeat would be strategically disastrous. As much as China loathes this war ever happened, it perceives western power must be checked.
On this calamitous backdrop, Xi Jinping is commencing his first visit to Europe in five years this week. He will be visiting France, Hungary, and Serbia. France is one of the major players of the EU, and has always been a pinnacle for engagement with Beijing, especially in influencing the course of the rest of the bloc as people like UDVL are pushing an aggressive agenda (who will also be present in the meeting with Macron, unsurprisingly). The other two states, Hungary and Serbia, are unabashedly pro-Beijing. Hungary is a sole pro-China pillar in the EU, and has positioned itself to become a gateway for Chinese companies, investments, and institutions. Serbia on the other hand, is not in the EU, but has faces pressure to join, and of course owing to recent history is scathingly Anti-NATO. By receiving support from China, Belgrade can secure political space for itself and remain autonomous, hence both sides will be looking to upgrade the relationship.
At the same time, Hungary and Serbia are neighbours who constitute part of an economic Belt and Road corridor fashioned by China that starts with Piraeus port in Greece. This is critical for Beijing to maintain a stake in regional supply chains even as the Commission pushes for "derisking", with Hungary as noted above willing to use this geopolitical niche to its own economic benefit, hence it is becoming a site for Chinese EV factories, Huawei and even a Fudan University campus. This illustrates that there is a multifaceted struggle ongoing for the future of Europe, with the continent torn between many respective parties. As China pushes to maintain its ties with the region, the United States is also placing unprecedented pressure on it to "align" against Beijing, weaponizing an army of think-tanks, funded media organisations and politicians accordingly.
It is little surprise that as this visit gets underway US funded organisations like IPAC, as they always do, begin to force through well-timed publicity stunts with the goal of embarrassing China and blocking engagement, while these narratives are also pushed through many other means. One should remember after all the massive coordinated Xinjiang campaign that was forced through in early 2021 to legitimate a "multilateral sanctions" push with the goal of reaffirming transatlantic unity and undermining the China-Europe Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). This time, however, the onus seems to be on directly accusing China of backing Russia and thus forcing a "taking sides" on a more clear-cut basis. This is a challenging dilemma given western politicians of late have become noticeably more hawkish on the Ukraine problem, not least Macron himself, and have been pushing alarmism as the war in general starts to turn against Kyiv.
If China has been attempting a balancing act between Moscow and Brussels, it is an increasingly fragile one, one which any escalation is almost sure to break, precisely why the US and its core allies such as the UK have had minimal interest in ending it quickly and pushing the fantasy of trying to beat Russia on the battlefield. Thus, Europe stands at a crossroads yet again as a large great power struggle over its allegiance and loyalty comes fully into play. Xi Jinping of course will attempt to make concessions to try and alleviate EU fears or "grievances", especially on the economic side, and Macron's rhetoric has indicated he clearly needs such concessions. Will there be a grand bargain? And can Xi pull a rabbit out of the hat? It all remains to be seen but there is a sense this geopolitical struggle will continue for a long time yet, with a great deal of history still yet to be written.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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