Opinion | Biden or Trump—Who is the lesser of two evils for China?

By Philip Yeung, university teacher

PKY480@gmail.com

In the American political zoo, the China dove is an endangered species. It is overrun by squawking China hawks. Being hawkish towards China is the only common ground for its two parties, the difference between them being only a difference of degree.

Still, as America staggers into its election year, Beijing must wonder who is a safer bet. It is staring at a stark choice: between a stubborn and senile Biden and a senile but juvenile Trump (this is in itself a biological incongruity). One can't climb the stairs and chew gum at the same time, the other thinks only with his mouth. This is the splendid American leadership in the 21st century.

They have little margin for error over China, as both leaders are only "40 percenters" on a good day. Their winning margins are wafer-thin and too risky for even a neutral stance on China. They cannot afford to let China be China.

Trump is already cashing in on his anti-China credentials, threatening to slap a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, and a 100% tariff on Chinese electric cars if they are manufactured in Mexico to take advantage of the North American Free Trade Agreement. He provocatively declares that "China is our boss", and that the US is becoming its subsidiary.

However unethical, Trump is a bred-in-the-bone businessman. His language is money; his weapon of choice is tariff. He will squeeze every ounce of political and economic advantage from China, though he is less trigger-happy than Biden and disinclined to be a military adventurist. As a Putin-puppet, Trump will reshuffle the deck and weaken the triangularity of the Russian-American-Chinese relationship, by reducing Russia's dependency on China, whose economic umbilical cord has kept Putin alive.

Trump is a nightmare for Europe, with his utterly US-centric approach. He has no use for NATO as an expensive US appendage. As a lone wolf, Trump has no appetite for alliances. Under him, the containment of China may slacken, thwarting NATO's eastward expansion. Trump believes in going toe-to-toe with his adversaries, delivering his knock-out punch with the world watching ringside. Trump wants no war with China over Taiwan, as he is ambivalent towards the island for grabbing the lion's share of the chip-making business.

Economically, Trump is bad news for Beijing. His escalation of trade tensions will outlive his second presidency. Tellingly, Biden did not lift Trump-era tariffs against China after he came to power. Trump's punitive trade measures will drive a bigger wedge between China and the US. Fair competition is for the birds.

As long as the Ukraine conflict drags on, China is safe from war over Taiwan. America fails to see its folly. The path to peace in Ukraine goes through China. Without the Chinese economic lifeline, Putin would have given up the ghost long ago. Going overboard on China-baiting has blinded US decision-makers to China's strategic importance to peace in this theatre. China, hard on the outside, but soft on the inside, is the best insurance against global conflict.

Trump is terrible for trade, but a better bet for the absence of war. Biden is economically less destructive, but war-like in his instincts. Both are error-prone, with little respect for the global order. One is a blustery reality show star, the other a rusty operator. Given their dotage, one or both might not see in a second presidency. The world awaits the emergence of a dark-horse candidate from an unexpected corner: Governor Gavin Newsom of California, the only adult in the room who dares to be different. His recent visit to China has brought sunshine to the dreary, rained-upon US-China geopolitical landscape. He knows the art of the deal, not the art of the steal. With him, partnership across the Pacific is possible. Biden is past his sell-by date and Trump is an unguided missile. The choice is between Biden's treadmill or Trump's roller-coaster. In a topsy-turvy America, who can crystal-ball into November?

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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