Opinion | Philippine rebels vow they'd keep fighting: Is Marcos manipulating and undermining ASEAN stability?
By Augustus K. Yeung
Mr. Marcos Jnr has repeatedly said that the Philippine rebels have been successfully dealt with, and that the problem of insurgency no longer exists.
The truth is that AFP Chief, Romeo Brawner, the army commander of the City of Manila, has once again contradicted the president.
Why is Marcos making up stories? What has he got in mind?
There are signs that domestic conflicts will continue and may get worse – before the bilateral relations get better.
Marcos may want to focus the nation's attention on fighting China by sidetracking and trying to portray China as a bully, taking advantage of Philippine fishermen amid the two countries' disputes in the South China Sea.
But the domestic skirmishes are still ongoing.
Philippine insurgents have again clashed with soldiers in remote parts of the country – amid conflicting claims by Marcos Jnr about a lull in hostilities.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr. declared in December – that there were "no more active" bases of the New People's Army (NPA) in the country. Since the start of the year, however, the so-called Maoist insurgents have engaged in gunfights with government forces at least 10 times in Rizal province, and the cities of Batangas, Negros Occidental, Bohol and Iloilo.
Note: Rebel leaders say the insurgency is growing stronger, contrary to the government's claims. The conflict has claimed more than 60,000 lives since the start of the insurgency in 1969, according to the Philippines army.
While the military believes the Marxist-Leninist-Maoist NPA peaked in the 1980s, the rebels claim they expanded their fighting capacity in the following years, carrying out offensives throughout the major island groups.
Marcos announced that the Armed Forces of the Philippines (APF) had neutralize 1,399 targets, eliminating all NPA strongholds. In January, however, AFP Chief Romeo Brawner said 11 supposedly "weakened" insurgent bases were still active.
Despite failing to crush the rebels with a cause multiple times, the government says it remains optimistic it can finally wipe out the NPA by the end of this year.
Note: The NPA serves as the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP). Alongside the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP), a CPP-led coalition, the NPA has been waging an insurgency – to demand land reform and poverty eradication.
Insurgents were still active in 14 out of 17 regions in the country, according to the CPP's estimates in December, fending off nearly 150 battalions of soldiers, police and paramilitary.
Marco Valbuena, CPP information officer, scoffed at the president's claims, saying most NPA units had expanded their areas of control and "adjusted to the AFP's tactics of large military mobilization."
NDFP chairwoman Julie de Lima said that their successful encounters since January were a result of the movement gaining ground.
"Even at this early stage, we can see that the NPA units are being strengthened," she said. "Year after year and regime after regime, the AFP has set the target of ending the revolutionary armed struggle – but it has never succeeded. There are no indications that it would succeed by 2025."
Georgij Engelbrecht, a senior analyst of the International Crisis Group, an NGO working to resolve armed conflicts, said the political nature of the insurgency would not be easy to address despite the NPA's recent setbacks. (Source: SCMP)
The recent skirmishes threaten to derail any chances of peace negotiations. Last November, Manila and the NDFP signed a joint communique in Oslo to signal commitment towards a "peaceful resolution of the armed conflict".
While the NDFP maintains there is room for dialogue with the government, the group intends to press on with its campaign, saying there can be "talking while fighting".
"The NDFP and the revolutionary forces it represents are determined to keep on fighting even while negotiating with the government or any current regime," De Lima said.
Why Mr. Marcos would go to the extent of lying to his people. Is he trying to shift the attention on domestic issues to the South China Sea and befriend Washington?
Now, please read the following newspaper report.
PLA sends forces to monitor US-Philippines patrol.
From the latest newspaper report, we have learned that the PLA had sent forces to the South China Sea to "monitor" the latest United States-Philippines joint air patrol – as the two allies launched their second drill in the disputed waters this month.
In response, Beijing accused Manila of "roping in non-regional countries to stir trouble in the South China Sea" and "publicly hyping up a so-called joint air patrol", though it did not refer to Washington.
Beijing's tensions with Manila over the South China Sea have been especially heated in recent months. The Philippines has accused China of repeatedly obstructing resupply missions within its exclusive economic zone, while Beijing said the Philippine vessels entered its territory illegally.
Clashes between the coastguards of the two countries near Second Thomas Shoal or Renai Jiao have also prompted Manila to mull plans to install permanent facilities on the reef – which Beijing warned would be met with "resolute responses".
This week, the Philippines accused Chinese fishermen of using cyanide to catch fish and "intentionally destroy" the disputed Scarborough Shoal, known to the Chinese as Huangyan Island.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the accusation was "fabricated" – as the Chinese government "highly values ecological protection and fishery resources and conservation."
Bilateral relations have changed direction since Marcos took office in 2022 and did away with former President Duterte's non-confrontational approach in the South China Sea.
Marcos has forged closer ties with the U.S., Japan and other allies – in recent months. Wang Yi, China's foreign minister, said recent developments had brought Beijing and Manila to "a crossroads".
While the purpose of Marcos' claims is now clear, it is feared that the squabbles, skirmishes and surveillance might soon spiral out of control. And ASEAN neutrality and prosperity may be endangered.
So far, Marcos Jnr is hardly a problem-solver, for sure.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
To contact the writer, please direct email: AugustusKYeung@ymail.com
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