Opinion | The Ukraine endgame
By Tom Fowdy
The first and most important thing we must understand about war is its inherent unpredictability. Wars never go according to script or plan, most often when the attacking force chronically underestimates their opponents and attempts to skirt long-term complications in favor of a quick, swift, and instant victory brought about by a so-called "master plan". History is littered with such examples; Adolf Hitler calculated he could quickly destroy the Soviet Union by seizing its most economically strategic areas and capturing Moscow in a rapid blitzkrieg attack, whereas Saddam Hussein chronically underestimated American power believing he could annex and hold Kuwait without incurring a military response.
Both deliberations, amongst many, failed to see the long-term consequences of their seemingly "genius" plans which ultimately accumulated in their own demise. In some ways, Vladimir Putin has joined this list for having also believed he could attain what he wanted in a swift, relatively bloodless, and decisive conflict that would bring about the immediate capitulation of the Ukrainian state. This backfired and next week will mark two years of a bloody and devastating conflict the Western media like to claim he planned to end in just "three days."
While Russia gravely miscalculated the strength of the Ukrainian response which would lead to battlefield setbacks in 2022, it was nonetheless also a fantasy on behalf of Kyiv, as well as the Western media, to push the mythology that Moscow was on its last legs and facing defeat in the country, as this has now also been proven not to be the case. Endless propaganda pushing ridiculously inflated Russian casualty figures, as well as amplifying and exaggerating every single setback led to a widespread delusion that falsely premised it was only a "matter of time" before Ukraine succeeded in recovering all its territory and driving out the invasion force.
The year 2023, and the beginning of 2024, have gradually seen reality dawn on this matter. Last year Ukraine and its backers in the Pentagon also drew up a wishfully thought "master plan" which premised that if Kiev could force its way south to the Sea of Azov and sever Russia's links to Crimea, it would cut Moscow's forces in two and therefore force an end to the conflict on Ukraine's terms. This was for all intents and purposes, their only chance of doing so. Despite the BBC reporting a billion times that Ukrainian forces had "crossed the Dnipro River" or "broke through the first line of defense" (typical of their blatantly biased cheerleading), these outcomes did not happen and the massively hyped "counteroffensive" was an overwhelming failure.
As I stated at the beginning of 2023, the failure of the counteroffensive would leave Ukraine without a way of winning the war. The West failed to contemplate how Russia effectively learned from its mistakes by doubling down on its physical defenses, reinforcing its troop numbers, and locking Kyiv into a war of attrition which it was better equipped to endure than assumed. The increased support for Ukraine's offensive proved inadequate, therefore raising the question of what it would take to impose the defeat on Moscow widely promised, and of course, the risks that would entail. In this case, by the end of 2023 reality came crashing down that Ukraine was now locked in an unwinnable war.
Last week, Russia then succeeded in taking the town of Avdiivka outside of Donetsk, a heavily fortified strategic settlement that Ukraine had held onto for years. Although the same predictable narrative was pushed about "heavy Russian casualties" it was nonetheless the biggest defeat Ukraine had experienced since the summer of 2022, and more so than Bakhmut, as they were overwhelmed by the Russian advance and ultimately had to withdraw. Following that, reports have surfaced that Russia is now attempting to push forward again across the entire front, aiming to take advantage of the absence of US support which is now being held up in Congress. It seems Ukraine's marginal "counteroffensive" gains are set to be reversed.
Although we should not be naïve to assume such US aid will be blocked forever, as the US foreign policy-making machine usually always gets what it wants, the best Ukraine and its allies can hope for now is simply to contain Russia as opposed to completely defeating them, and avoiding the emerging scenario whereby Moscow ultimately "breaks" the Ukrainian army by outnumbering them and outgunning them. However, Zelensky, who fanatically insisted Ukraine would take back all lost territory and shunned peace talks, must surely be in trouble now. His country is now locked in an unwinnable war that Russia, despite its initial mistakes, is pursuing with a vengeance. It seems improbable that Russian forces could ever get to Kyiv again, yet it also seems clear they have regained the initiative and will throw everything they have at making Ukraine submit. This leaves the ultimate outcome of the war as a question of how much Ukraine wants to lose it.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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