Opinion | Is the world ready for another Trump Presidency

By Tom Fowdy

By this stage, it seems almost inevitable that Donald Trump will be the Republican Candidate for the President of the United States come November. More worrying, of course is the fact some polls put him narrowly ahead of Biden. As much as the Biden Presidency has hardly been amicable in respect to world peace and its foreign policies, it stands very much to reason that a renewed Trump administration will be far, far worse.

Following how the previous Presidency ended and the immense bitter and vengeance sentiment that has stemmed from it, combined with the fact such an administration will "have nothing to lose" electorally with one term left, we should fully expect Trump to be more unpredictable, aggressive, callous, unhinged, and unrestrained than ever before. It is his final shot to impose his vision on America, and as always, he will inevitably surround himself with NeoConservative hardliners that will make his foreign policy even more aggressive.

It is reported that Trump will immediately seek to escalate the trade war with China to an extent like never seen before, which the Washington Post reports will see him increase tariffs to 60% and revoke "most favored nation status." While of course some of this is campaign trial rhetoric, we should learn not to assume Trump is bluffing under any circumstances. This path of action will prove to be an unmitigated disaster for the global economy, strangle supply chains, and see inflation skyrocket. While Trump of course always seeks to make deals in the end, it is worth noting that such deals rarely ever go to plan because they are precisely undermined by hardliners in his own Presidency (see North Korea), or other unexpected events.

To this end, another fearful scenario for China is the potential return of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State as a byproduct. We should be mindful that beyond the trade war fiasco, Mike Pompeo was more responsible for the destruction of American, as well as the west's relationship with China, than any other party, that's because as being in charge of the State Department, he controlled and shaped the narrative the mainstream media was setting about Beijing and to this end he unleashed the "Uyghur Genocide" claims and then effectively used it to declare, contrary to export legal opinion, that it was indeed a genocide, a position so entrenched the Biden administration embraced (albeit are now ignoring).

Despite this, on the other hand, a Trump Presidency will almost certainly tear up the existing world order as we know it. While the Biden administration seeks to maintain the hegemonic status quo, often even by permitting wars where it suits it, the Trump administration will, on the other hand, return to a unilateralist "America First" approach, which will bin allies. For example, Trump will certainly become antagonistic to the European Union and NATO again, and we should expect him to that regard to immediately end the conflict in Ukraine and seek a normalization with Russia, the end goal being to try and pivot Moscow against China at Europe's experience.

While the Biden Administration tries to keep its fingers in every pie, the Trump administration will be more realist with its priorities, because Russia is sympathized with as a right-wing Conservative state above the "Oriental" Communist state, and the Ukraine war is thus condemned as part of the "forever wars" Trumpism despises. It is worth noting that while the Trump administration is aggressive and coercive, it is not to the point, militaristic, which is which produces the continual factional tug of war between realists and NeoConservatives in this regard, but is nonetheless still all and all part of the chaos a Trump Presidency produces.

Along with this, the US will be struck with more divisive political turmoil and chaos. Some say this is good for China, but I disagree. Beijing likes predictability and stability. To this end, while I strongly dislike the Biden administration's foreign policy which has also been extremely dangerous and unrestrained, I have finally concluded it is the lesser of the two evils and that a return of Donald Trump will be disastrous for the entire world and threaten the foundations of global prosperity ever more so. It is a lose-lose situation, but there is an English idiom which goes "it is better the devil you know," and I truly feel even the American people, as much as Biden may dour some of them, do not deserve a repeat of Trump again.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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