By Tom Fowdy
A few days ago an analysis piece appeared on the North Korean research website 38North which queried "Is Kim Jong Un preparing for war?" This site, which is not known for hyperbole, sensationalism or dramaticism, is generally respected, and the article, written by Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker, presented the argument that Kim Jong Un, having seen the process of normalization with the United States fall apart, has made the strategic decision to pursue war upon being emboldened by the geopolitical context.
Critically, the article does not present any substantial evidence to back up this claim save a shift in rhetoric from the DPRK. It is also to that degree, quite dismissive of the well-substantiated line of argument that should North Korea initiate a war in the bid to conquer South Korea, it would almost certainly lose, that's because it would be facing a vastly economic and technologically superior opponent in Seoul, but also the direct participation and full-force of the United States war machine.
North Korea has developed significant nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities but the bulk of their army relies upon aging Soviet-era equipment, a largely obsolete air force and an ill-prepared and underequipped army of soldiers. If the DPRK could not succeed in the 1950s before China's intervention, how could it do so now? And moreover, why would Beijing come to the rescue of Pyongyang in a war that it chooses to initiate? The outcome would be catastrophic and almost certainly go nuclear, which is of course not a substitute for winning.
But these observations don't tell us anything about Kim Jong un's decision making, that's because if it were not obvious already, wars are rarely premised on common sense calculations, but ultimately extremely costly gambles, overestimating one's capabilities, which are premised on so-called "master plans" to end things quickly, which then almost always fail. We don't even have to go back far to acknowledge this, given it is widely understood Vladimir Putin premised his war plan on the capitulation of Kyiv within three days, and certainly did not consider a (so far) two-year-long war of attrition against an embattled Ukraine descending into a stalemate.
Similarly, Adolf Hitler promised he could conquer the Soviet Union in one knockout blow by conquering Moscow and seizing their most economically important areas, it failed and ultimately laid the way for his downfall. Or, in another comparative battle, the Imperial German command in World War I theorized they could rapidly capture Paris in a pre-emptive sweep through Belgium and avoid a long protracted two-front war, again it failed and the rest was history. The point being, that wars often emerge from overconfident, if not desperate leaders, who never quite consider the full-blown consequences of what they unleash.
Why in this case would Kim Jong Un, a leader who leaves absolutely no space whatsoever for dissent in his political system, be any different? For the record, North Korea appears irrational but is in fact well calculated and pursues its foreign policy with a brutal Machiavellianism premised on the state's own survival, which has been the core foundation of its pursuit of nuclear weapons capability and its leveraging of this to force diplomacy, but that doesn't mean of course the leadership of the DPRK is infallible, after all in their decision making, they never put the best interests of their people first or ever care about the humanitarian consequences of their decisions.
Whether it be closing the country down completely to trade in 2020 to avoid COVID, or even enduring catastrophic famine in the 1990s than cede sovereignty, the DPRK has a history of making punishing decisions in pursuit of its regime survival. Therefore, the question ultimately comes down to at what point does North Korea feel it has no other options left than to pursue a war of choice against the US and South Korea to finally secure its agenda? This all sounds a bit improbable given the DPRK now has more backing from China and Russia, owing to the geopolitical context, than it ever has had since the Cold War, but of course on the other hand that emboldens Kim as well.
He may assume that given the situation, he can drag them into it and force their hand accordingly to support him, and instead of the ultimate destruction of North Korea many assume would happen, another protracted land war such as Ukraine emerges which subsequently pins China PRC down and locks it into a confrontation with America. It is impossible ultimately to render what Kim Jong un is thinking right now, but is such a scenario beyond the realm of possibility? Didn't we all assume Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine? Thus we should tensely watch the situation, not make any predictions, but not rule out the worst.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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