Opinion | In Taiwan's election, once again history repeats itself! Beijing may need a plan B
By Augustus K. Yeung
Obnoxious people regurgitate, "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow." Whether or not this statement is accurate is for them to wait and see. But in Taiwan's election, history does repeat itself. The voting results came out Saturday night, showing front-runner William Lai Ching-te, the candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party was the winner of the "presidential" leadership race, beating opponents Hou Yu-ih, and Ko Wen-ju.
Lai won 5,575,704 votes, while Hou and Ko garnered 4,659,850 and 3,683,512 respectively. What do all these figures tell you?
Immediately after the results were confirmed, Ko said he was disappointed, implying that he had overestimated his strength, while Hou apologized for not changing the fate, allowing the DPP's Lai to succeed Tsai Ing-wen and continue their party's grip on the island of Taiwan.
The implications of Lai's win over his opponents have far reaching consequences for China, the U.S. and even the global economy, not just to the people of Taiwan. Thus, the reasons for losing or winning become consequential.
For Beijing, it was another great disappointment and more. It means that China will not be able to start its plan (A?) of negotiation with the KMT, its preferred dialogue partner for national rejuvenation. It also means that China may be subject to another round of agitation and more of the same from some U.S. politicians whose anti-China stance can create annoying troubles such as conducting official visits, or the White House selling arms and munitions to the renegade island.
For the U.S., the ability to censor or impose sanctions on the supply of semi-computer chips to China can continue as usual, controlling, and curbing China's chips supply line.
For the Western world, they may have to continue to play the role of vasa states as Washington is likely to order them around – in support of plans and policies over controlling of and imposing bans on and even totally controlling China.
A perspective from Taiwan is important. What does Taiwan want after decades of self-rule? What are its strengths and weaknesses? A SWOT analysis (strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) is necessary.
Strengths
Taiwan's products are in the hundreds, such as grouper fish, cookies, pineapple, and chemicals. Its exports may be its strength, especially "its dominance of chip fabrication, which constitutes a global strategic industry, gives it geographic influence far beyond its size, economy and population," said Richard Cronin, a fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, who wrote in a recent report. "China's dependence on Taiwan to cover its chip deficit has been called its 'Silicon shield'." Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (TSMC) is the world's largest supplier of computer chips.
Weaknesses-
Taiwan's strength is its weakness. For example, TSMC operates two plants in China making less advanced computer chips. It has been forced to comply with western demands to restrict exports of equipment and technology for leading edge semiconductors. Like many Taiwan firms wary of geopolitical and trade tensions with Washington, it has been shifting some production offshore – to Japan, Germany and Arizona. And may be more in the future.
Opportunities-
Taiwan has been boosting trade with the rest of Asia and other regions. But the greatest opportunities have been its freedom to move to China. Even when tensions have surged, Beijing has largely refrained from targeting the thousands of Taiwanese moving to China to work, start businesses or set up factories.
Threats-
China has banned imports of hundreds of Taiwan products. For example, on January1, it ended preferential tariffs on some Taiwan exports, including chemicals that had been part of a 2010 trade pact. Beijing's muscle flexing is especially a serious concern, although most of the PLA moves are a response to American provocations such as visits from Western and Washington's officials, or the supply of arms and munitions to Taiwan. Youth unemployment, too, is a problem and so is social inequality.
Should Taiwan's DPP "misbehave", mainland's military exercises and new coercive economic measures are, therefore, likely.
To return to the all-important elections, what a difference it would have made had Hou and Ko compromised! By combing their votes, the total would be over 8.34 million against Lai's 5.57 million votes. Why must Hou and Ko compete and fight, and not join force?
Recalling the first presidential race when the DPP won, Chen Sui-Bian battled two KMT senior party leaders – with two hardcore KMT officials splitting into two camps and running against the other. Both lost the race, starting the tragedy of Taiwan separatist's grip – a threat to Beijing, initiating cross-strait conflicts, and drawing in the hegemonic U.S.
The inability to reach a compromise is the crux of the matter. There seems to be a pattern, and now a social phenomenon showing the result of inward-looking – as an island that has for decades been under siege, producing a kind of personality trait, which is parochial and narcissistic, not in-group in nature.
The self is growing in the vacuum of a societal solidarity in which the person must strive to be self-sufficient with personal achievement as the ideal goal, which is not conducive to group or team building, or compromise.
View in this perspective, the theoretical derivative is that the elderly leaders find comfort in their own age-group, failing to nurture the younger generation, turning them into outcast. For the KMT, this is a hidden crisis, which explains the present failure of the party.
The theoretical implication is that Beijing cannot and should no longer rely on the KMT to reach the goal of reunification as being assisted by this party, which has long passed its prime.
Consequently, Beijing should not be relying on the KMT – to oust or defeat the DPP at the polls, and reach its goal of reunification, although Ma Ying Jiu, the former President is pragmatically patriotic.
Peaceful reunification is still the future of Taiwan. But Beijing must now rethink and draw a new unification road map.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
To contact the writer, please direct email: AugustusKYeung@ymail.com
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