Opinion | Xi's visit to Vietnam has raised serious concerns among observers: How to correctly interpret the situation?
By Augustus K. Yeung
INTRODUCTION
Why was the Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Vietnam, weeks after Vietnam elevated its diplomatic relations with Western-aligned countries? Was how President Xi being received an indication of China's relations with Vietnam? How good are their conditions of bilateral trades? Does Vietnam's recent advances with Western-aligned countries trigger China's concerns that had prompted this state visit?
In a world that is dominated by the United States, the Asia-Pacific is expected to be turbulent. In American society in which there are two political parties rivaling each other, the incumbent president's policy is expected to be severely affected by taking the opponent's advances into consideration.
This was exactly what had happened to China, which was negatively affected by President Joe Biden, who had to play along with what landmines that his predecessor has had to offer.
With the last ditch of U.S. efforts as demonstrated by the high-level White House officials visiting Beijing, trying to salvage the sagging bilateral relations, this damage control was successful. And this truce between China and the U.S. is expected to continue for now.
To return to the Asia-Pacific geopolitical landscape, the best we can do now is turn our attention to what is happening under our eyes.
To arrive at the correct interpretation of the recent changes, let us closely study the following newspaper report in detail.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Vietnam yesterday – seeking to further deepen ties with the Southeast Asian nation, weeks after it elevated its diplomatic relations with Western-aligned countries.
In his first visit since 2017, Xi will meet with Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, President Vo Van Thuong and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Vietnam's Foreign Ministry said.
"This reflects Beijing's concerns about Hanoi's advances with the West," said Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow with the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. "Concerns that Vietnam may join an anti-China alliance and gang up against China."
The Chinese leader received a red-carpet welcome as Chinh greeted him on the tarmac. Dozens of Chinese and Vietnamese nationals gathered at the airport, waving Chinese and Vietnamese flags to welcome Xi and his wife, Peng Li-yuan, who accompanied him on the visit.
Xi's visit marks 15 years of China being a "comprehensive strategic partner" of Vietnam, the highest official designation for a diplomatic relationship.
Vietnam plays an increasingly important strategic role in security and the economy in Southeast Asia.
Ideologically, Vietnam is closer to Beijing. It is run by a Communist Party with strong ties to China. But in recent months, Vietnam has signaled closer ties with Western countries.
In September, U.S. President Joe Biden visited Vietnam – to mark the U.S. being elevated to the same diplomatic status as China. Biden asserted that the stronger ties were not about countering China, though U.S. diplomacy across Asia and the Pacific has been focused on improving defense ties with countries to do just that.
In November, Japan and Vietnam boosted their economic and security ties – citing a "free and open Indo-pacific," with Japan being given the same diplomatic status as China and the U.S., Japan has been rapidly developing closer ties with Vietnam and is its third-largest foreign investor.
Experts say Vietnam is hedging against its large neighbor and its geographical claims.
"You can see that they're flexible and balancing big powers," said Nguyen Thanh Trung, a professor of Vietnamese studies at Fulbright University Vietnam.
Vietnam is one of several countries to clash with China in the disputed South China Sea, particularly on two archipelagos, the Spratlys and the Paracel Islands. It has faced off with China's coast guard in the past in the disputed waters.
Unlike the Philippines, Vietnam does not publicize the confrontations.
In October, President Xi told the Vietnamese president that amid "changing international landscapes" the two nations should continue to develop their "traditional friendship."
The two spoke after attending China's Belt and Road Forum. Vietnam is likely to sign some infrastructure agreements with Beijing, as it has paid close attention to the development of the Chinese-built high-speed rail in Laos, completed in 2021.
"The Vietnamese prime minister wants to focus on more infrastructure," said Nguyen, the professor. "He thinks it's key to economic growth."
China has been Vietnam's largest trading partner for several years, with bilateral trade turnover of $175.6 billion in 2022. Imports from China, including crucial inputs for Vietnam's manufacturing sector, make up 67 %. However, the trade is at a deficit in China's favor.
China has over $26 billion invested in Vietnam, with more than 4,000 active projects.
Xi's 2017 visit to Vietnam was for an Asia-Pacific economic summit in the coastal city of Danang. (Source: MDT/AP)
The fact that Vietnam is upgrading its relations with the United States and Japan may be a strategic response to the two countries overtures for future advances. For Vietnam, this move can also be used as a "hedge" for rainy days when time is right to settle its territorial claims with China.
For now, Vietnam is clearly and closely following the principles of trade development and settling territorial disputes through diplomatic solutions, in the same strategic direction which China is following. For example, "The Vietnamese prime minister wants to focus on more infrastructure." He thinks it's key to economic growth." China and Vietnam are trade partners working closely together to accomplish "a community of shared interests."
The facts that Vietnam was rolling out the red carpet for President Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan, the nation's First Lady, with an army of flag-waving children and women are strong signals, and signing dozens of trade agreements show that their bilateral relations are obviously on good terms.
Conclusively, China and Vietnam have far more interests in common than the territorial disputes. With China and Vietnam sharing the same ideological and political principle, and pursuing the same economic development goals, bilateral relations are optimistically expected to remain stable.
To contact the writer, please direct email: AugustusKYeung@ymail.com
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