Opinion | How hype of a Ukrainian victory shattered
By Tom Fowdy
At the start of 2023, I wrote that this year would be the defining year of Russia's war in Ukraine, and that what takes place on the battlefield throughout the coming 12 months would be largely definitive in determining the pathway to its ultimate outcome. Of course, by the end of the previous year, the mainstream media had already whipped up a huge frenzy alluding that Ukraine's final victory in the country was all but a pre-determined outcome.
With social media at that time becoming overwhelmingly lopsided in favour of Ukraine, and their supporters being peddled absurd propaganda dramatically exaggerating Russia's losses, as well as the proficiency of Western technology on the battlefield, and riding high following the Kherson and Kharkiv counteroffensives, I copped a great deal of abuse for my position that the concept of Ukraine re-taking all territory was a delusion fabricated by narrative control and misinformation. It fell on deaf ears.
As the year began, the mainstream media also dramatically hyped up Ukraine's prospects of a "counteroffensive" against Russia, and many believed Kyiv would succeed by forcing its way down to the Sea of Azov, cutting Moscow's military positions in two, and successfully isolated Crimea. With Russia's losses being apparently so high the supporters of Ukraine earnestly assumed there was no other outcome. Yet, at the start of the 11th month of 2023, and 5 months into that counteroffensive operation, Ukraine has made practically no headway whatsoever and the massive gains that were promised did not materialise.
Beyond all the propaganda about Russian losses, the truth is that Ukraine has not in fact made any major gains against Russia whatever in a full year now, with Moscow having learnt from its mistakes and complacency, and buckled down in a defensive war of attrition. For Ukraine, that counteroffensive has always been a "now or never" gamble, precisely because continued large-scale Western aid and equipment was reportedly conditional on yielding the precise results which would give Kyiv a definitive route to winning the war on their own terms, therefore making continued aid and equipment from the west on a large scale politically justifiable.
On the other hand, however, as I cautiously argued at the time, Ukraine's counteroffensive was to fail, it would leave them without a clear way to win the war, with them having placed expectations on a "maximinalist" victory of regaining all territory as the only acceptable outcome, something they depicted themselves as capable of doing. But if Ukraine could not break forward with the current level of support, what on earth would it take for them to liberate Crimea? And is that kind of expense acceptable to Western countries? Of course not. Russia made some mistakes in 2022, but the misleading depiction of its military competence as disastrous distracted from the reality it is too large a power to be defeated so easily.
Now, the political tides are shifting. First of all, the world's attention has been diverted completely by the events in Gaza, which also in turn has become a new priority for Western governments. This has given politicians the breathing space to put distance between themselves and the Ukraine and therefore an ability to finally start playing it down beyond the alarmist "as long as it takes" moral obligation. This change in the press cycle has cost Zelensky his place in the headlines, with Ukraine's cause having been floated on endless publicity in their favour, as well as the social media wars. In conjunction with this, public opposition to the continued funding and support of Kyiv has increased, noticeably in the United States where it has gained strong traction amongst Republicans, slowly transforming the issue into a matter of partisan struggle using Israel as a ruse to cut off support.
So where does this leave the conflict now? The Biden administration of course has vowed to double down on it, taking a George W. Bush-level posture to conflicts overseas arguing conflicts overseas arguing American democracy at home depends on it, but with an election upcoming and anti-Ukraine sentiment growing, that is easier said than done. The reality is, Ukraine have failed in their counteroffensive gamble which leaves a difficult road ahead for them as political tides turn. As a Time headline reads: "Inside Volodymyr Zelensky's lonely fight to save Ukraine as war fatigue spreads."
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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Opinion | Hypocrisy on the grandest scale
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