Opinion | China owes the US nothing over North Korea
By Tom Fowdy
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken recently made a series of remarks targeting China during a fireside chat at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado. On record, he was quoted saying Beijing has "unique influence" and that "we hope that you'll use it to get better cooperation from North Korea." He then followed this up by a subtle threat, noting that "But if you can't or if you won't, then we're going to have to continue to take steps that aren't directed at China but that China probably won't like because it goes to strengthening and shoring up not only our own defences but also those of South Korea and Japan and a deepening of the work that all three of us are doing together."
The US policy merry go round regarding North Korea has yet again reached the stage of the cycle whereby China's "cooperation" on denuclearising the DPRK is "requested" under the implicit threat of taking unilateral action. Such was, albeit in far more unhinged terms, the entire philosophy of Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Pyongyang whereby he threatened "fire and fury" against the country and pre-emptive military strikes save it was prepared to denuclearise. In doing so, Trump successfully solicited the cooperation of Beijing for an increasingly punitive series of measures at the United Nations, only of course for him to unleash his anti-China agenda having secured this good will.
Trump of course went on to pursue direct engagement with the DPRK too, even meeting its leader Kim Jong un three times. Despite this, he was ultimately unsuccessful in persuading or deterring Pyongyang to end its nuclear program, and following his departure North Korea has ramped up missile testing again as Biden has returned to a stiffer approach, deliberately driving up tensions with the understanding that it compliments its "Indo-Pacific strategy" by doing so, and thus permits the greater militarisation of South Korea and attachment of it to US strategic goals, such as for example, the docking of a nuclear submarine in Busan for the first time since in 40 years.
However, if Biden is banking on a less unhinged, "Trump lite" approach regarding the DPRK that can coerce Beijing into following its will, he is in for a big surprise. The world has changed existentially, and China is now under no naivety regarding the US's strategic intentions and will for it. But not only that, the US has attained another adversary in the Russian federation who are also a backer of North Korea, with Pyongyang being an alleged military supplier of Moscow's conflict in Ukraine. Both China and Russia, facing overwhelming hostility from Washington nearly every front, have no reason to cooperate in good faith, let alone do its dirty work in denuclearising North Korea, a policy choice which is not only misguided but has been a complete non-starter for years.
The DPRK has attained increasingly sophisticated capabilities in intercontinental ballistic missile technology and banks its own survival on having the ability to strike the United States homeland directly. While of course this creates a dilemma that is allowing the US to pursue greater militarisation of this region, concerning Japanese rearmament, and dragging South Korea closer into its orbit, on the other hand, North Korea represents a check on American power through being a small, nuclear-powered adversary that is unprecedented in history. The push by both countries to subdue North Korea to America's will and denuclearise will not make the US go away from the peninsula, as per the collapse of the Soviet Union in the Cold War and NATO, but ultimately increase its influence as a now toothless DPRK (even if the regime did not collapse) is subsequently integrated into a US-South Korea led political order.
This is a reminder that North Korea sees its nuclear program its only strategic objection to rationally maintain its own sovereignty amidst all the great powers around it, and therefore will under no circumstances, surrender it. The only rational option from China's perspective is to therefore urge North Korea to pursue dialogue and calm down, but there are two problems. First of all, China has no reason to act in good will on behalf of the US save the US gives it something in return. Secondly, North Korea itself is remarkably resilient and having gone years with a full-border shutdown, which for a while cut off all of its foreign trade, there is no reason it will feasibly agree. As a popular propaganda song goes: "Korea does what it is determined to do!" and the country will pursue its objectives at all costs, no matter what punishment this inflicts on its ordinary people. There are no good options for dealing with a nuclear North Korea, and the US is kidding itself if it is still flogging this dead horse.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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