Opinion | US soldier's entry into North Korea is a political gift to Kim Jong Un
By Tom Fowdy
A US soldier has, in his foolishness, crossed the border in the Joint Security Area (JSA), at Panmunjom, a small checkpoint in the heavily militarized border between North and South Korea, where the dividing line between the two states is demarcated between jointly managed huts and a single line of bricks. This area is known for popularly bringing soldiers from the two Koreas face to face and as such is a popular tourist destination, which can be either visited from the South side or the North itself (pre-2020). Despite this, attempting to cross that simple line, which under international law remains an active conflict and military frontier, is akin to a belligerent entering enemy territory.
That definition only becomes truer given it is a US serviceman who has done it, the very country the DPRK deems it is at war with. Named publicly as private Travis King, the soldier entered the JSA on a conventional tour, but for an unexplained reason was described as laughing loudly before running across the demarcation line into North Korea, an act which unsurprisingly led to his swift detention. The US of course will try to contact the DPRK and get him back, but deteriorating relations between the two, the Biden administration's refute of diplomacy with the DPRK, and its decision to station a nuclear-armed submarine in Busan (on that same day), means there is no chance of getting Pyongyang to cooperate without tabling meaningful concessions. This has set up the situation to be a political gift to Kim Jong un, it is a catastrophic blunder by a low-ranking American serviceman which compromises the foreign policy of his country.
North Korea's foreign policy is not calibrated on irrational belligerence, as is commonly assumed, but extreme realism. The DPRK is an extremely insecure regime who's legitimacy is challenged by a wealthy counterpart in the South, backed by the overwhelming military power of the United States. Because of this, Pyongyang has developed a strategy around the "Juche" ideology which emphasizes maximum pursuit of national sovereignty in order to leverage everything it can to avoid being politically dominated by others. This system, which gradually developed in the context of the Cold War and the Sino-Soviet split, consolidated the DPRK's ultra-authoritarian political order and the cult of personality constructed around its leadership.
This pursuit of "sovereignty at all costs", subsequently manifests itself in a foreign policy doctrine which seeks to use everything it can as leverage as a means of attaining concessions from great powers. While key to this doctrine has been its nuclear program, which it calculates as critical to its own survival, in addition, the DPRK has not been afraid to take Americans as diplomatic bargaining chips when the opportunity presents itself. Now having visited the DPRK myself a number of times, before covid made it impossible, the country is generally safe for foreign visitors if you 1) Keep their rules and do not cross any lines and 2) Are not from a country North Korea can perceive political gain in arresting you (i.e the US). Still, I must acknowledge now with hindsight that the DPRK's decision-making is unpredictable and they will absolutely do what they deem in their interests to do.
This of course spelt extremely bad news for US student Otto Warmbier, who on being caught seemingly interfering with a political poster (deemed sacred) he was detained, and returned in a comatose condition. Although the claim he was "tortured" has been proven false by medical evidence, and is for all intents and purposes, a political narrative, with maturity, the DPRK is obviously accountable for his fate. So what does that mean for a US political serviceman, deemed an enemy combatant by North Korea and the most propagandized category of individual in the country, who illegally enters by crossing a military border? Let's put it this way for Kim Jong un the fact that this happened, at this timing, is manna from heaven.
The Biden administration, in its ultra-militaristic and NeoConservative foreign policy which has involved ramping up tensions all over the world, has had no interest in talking to the DPRK. It has eschewed the de-escalation of tensions pursued by Trump, who met with Kim Jong un on three occasions. Because of that policy shift, Pyongyang has returned to rapid ICBM missile development, recognizing that in the new post-Ukraine geopolitical world, Russia or China will not cooperate on sanctions, giving it free reign to enhance its capabilities. Now, it has an American soldier gifted to them, that compromises the US's foreign policy, because it has to talk to North Korea. Pyongyang, however, isn't going to play ball unless they get something in return. Usually, the DPRK demands a diplomatic visit of some kind in order to release detainees, or if not, a financial incentive. If of course Biden kept the old-Trump status quo, it would have been swiftly resolved. On the other hand, if the administration is unwilling to seriously do anything about it, well Travis only has himself to blame in the end. He's not a victim, he's a fool.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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