Opinion | India's dilemma: To befriend the U.S. or mend fence with China

By Augustus K. Yeung

INTRODUCTION

What Indian PM Narendra Modi did in the US Congress joint welcome session was street smart, not a work of wisdom. Some critics said he seemed to be more "appealing to the voters back in India" than anything else, keeping in mind the next election.

What stunt did he pull?

Modi put together the initials of two countries, America and India, and came out with an acronym AI, to mean "artificial intelligence", winning applauses from the audience, many of them are lawmakers. They were here with the White House officials for various purposes: To counter a rising China; and for Joe Biden, to show that he can unite the two rival parties at a time when Trump is "posturing the stance of a president" as one New York Times journalist put it.

Biden might also want to lure Modi into a rope round his neck – to counter, contain and consume China, whenever necessity demands.

To achieve these current and distant goals, Washington has gone out of its way to please Modi by rolling out the red carpet, setting a state banquet and even offering to share with him its prized "jet engine" technology.

What about Modi's ethnic issues in India? How can the theatrical shows staged by the White House and the US Congress help PM Modi to solve his domestic problems and the Himalayan border issue with China?

The following excerpt will jog our memory concerning Modi's headaches.

Modi has been trying to strengthen India's hard power…

Meanwhile, Modi has been trying to enhance India's hard power. Capital spending on defense has been increasing since he came to power. In the 2023-24 budget announced in February, India allocated 13 per cent more funds to the defense sector than in the previous year.

Some of India's expenditure on defense has already borne fruit. This month, the navy put on display a new indigenous aircraft carrier, which should become fully operational later this year, in an exercise involving more than 35 aircraft, Modi now hopes to sign a deal with the US to co-produce jet engines for Indian fighter aircraft.

Yet, despite this incremental progress, India's military forces remain heavily overburdened. Notwithstanding increased spending, India's defense sector has suffered a massive shortfall between funds allocated and the military's need over the past five years. There are concerns the country's naval fleet is reaching obsolescence and that the strength of the air force's fighter squadrons is declining.

The military's needs, however, are only burgeoning with time. Despite negotiations with China following the deadly border clash in 2020, India now anticipates a permanently heavy deployment on the disputed border.

With ongoing political instability in Pakistan, there are also worries about spillovers on the western front, where militants have previously exploited political chaos at home to carry out cross-border attacks in India.

Recent events have shown that troubles can deplete India's overstretched military resources…

Recent events have also shown that troubles at home have the potential to further deplete India's already thinly stretched military resources. Take the northeastern state of Manipur, for instance.

After horrifying ethnic clashes broke out there early last month and local police force proved inadequate, the military was called in to control the violence. Nearly 40,000 security personnel have been stationed in Manipur, according to one report, including any army division whose primary role is to serve as a reserve formation for the border with China.

With no political solution in sight, there is a danger that the Indian army may end up with a substantial long-term deployment there.

Meanwhile, tens of thousands of army troops have been stationed in Kashmir – one of the world's most heavily militarized regions – after Delhi controversially stripped the state of Jammu and Kashmir of its semi-autonomous status in 2019.

While the Modi government is reportedly pondering the withdrawal of these troops from Kashmir's hinterland to be replaced by the Central Reserve Police Force, many remain concerned over the resulting potential for instability in the past few years. Kashmir has seen multiple episodes of violence against police, government employees and the Hindu minority.

There have also been sporadic outbreaks of violence in other parts of India in recent years, as communal tensions remain high between Hindu and Muslims. In March, violence broke out in multiple states during religious processions. Such episodes will keep India's security apparatus on edge and raise pressure on its military because of the threat of further deployment. (Source: SCMP)

CONCLUSION

With Asia's security landscape becoming potentially more volatile, there are developments that should worry India, the U.S. and China. A likely scenario may result in Washington for treating India as a key security partner in Asia.

Over the past several months, Washington appears to be more focused on its defense ties with Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines. This month, Japan joined NATO's largest air force drill in Germany.

The US may also want to draw India into its sphere of influence or orbit by sharing its advanced defense technology with Delhi – one of Modi's key priorities in the relationship

However, in recent years, there has been criticism in Washington of India's internal politics. Shortly before the state visit, 75 U.S. Senators sent a joint letter to the president, condemning Modi's human rights violation records.

Washington believes India's military is too distracted by threats at home, and Biden may have solicited cooperation from the US Congress for support now, and for a defense pact with India in the future.

For Modi, this ought to spark concern. Unless India can manage domestic stability, and eschew divisive communal rhetoric in politics, Delhi might find itself weakened and marginalized in Asia's evolving geopolitical landscape. Notably, its long-lasting challenging border issue with China.

Will all these partying in Washington as well as bathing in its limelight and music help Narendra Modi solve his headaches back home, not to mention raising India's international profile?

 

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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