Opinion | As U.S. sets out terms for ceasefire, China's peace initiative is gathering momentum

By Augustus K. Yeung

INTRODUCTION

Former president Donald Trump is turning his indictments to his political advantage. A social movement is emerging that acts against his rival President Joe Biden.

Trump is becoming the strongest presidential candidate, who might turn out to be Biden's opponent in the 2024 presidential election.

The international environment is also discouraging for Biden. As Blinken sees it. "Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has partly blamed the United States for the war; India has refused to sever its historic ties with Moscow and instead has taken advantage of bargains on Russian oil; China has sent an envoy," said Mr. Blinken.

It is now becoming clear that Blinken's speech in Helsinki is showing U.S. initial tendency to move in the direction of peace.

"We will support efforts – whether by Brazil, China or any other nation – if they help find a way to a just and lasting peace, consistent with the principles in the UN Charter," he said.

The following excerpt lends support to this prediction that White House is showing signs for peace in Ukraine.

Blinken predicted rising calls for ceasefire or peace deal…

America's top diplomat has blasted that a strong Ukraine was a prerequisite for talks with Russia, hoping to pre-empt pressure for a quick ceasefire that he warned would bring only a "Potemkin" or fake peace.

In a speech in Finland, which after Russia's invasion of Ukraine shed its historic neutrality and joined NATO. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the war launched by President Vladimir Putin was, a "case study in failure".

"When you look at President Putin's long-term strategic aims and objectives, there is no question: Russia is significantly worse off today than it was before the full-scale invasion," Blinken said at Helsinki City Hall.

"Where Putin aimed to project strength, he has revealed weakness. Where he intended to divide, he has united," he said.

Blinken earlier last week also visited Sweden to champion the Nordic country's own bid to join NATO – the Western alliance whose potential embrace of Ukraine was cited by Putin as a reason for the war.

Blinken delivered the speech in the hope of laying down a firm US position, as he predicted rising calls for a ceasefire or peace deal after Ukrainian forces launched a vaunted counteroffensive.

"Precisely because we have no illusions about Putin's aspirations, we believe the prerequisite for meaningful diplomacy and real peace is a stronger Ukraine – capable of deterring and defending against any future aggression," Blinken said.

A ceasefire that froze in place Russia's gains "is not a just and lasting peace…" he said. "It would reward the aggressor and punish the victim."

Push for peace is likely to grow with the coming U.S. presidential election

The push to broker an end to the war is likely to grow with next year's US presidential campaign, in which Donald Trump has denounced President Joe Biden's arming of Ukraine and voiced expectations that Russia would triumph.

Blinken's visit to Helsinki put into a stark relief the downward spiral of US relations with Russia over just five years.

In 2018, Trump travelled to the Finnish capital to see President Putin, who was believed to have been interfering in the US election two years earlier.

There is little prospect now of Putin visiting a European Union nation or meeting an American president – and Blinken called him out in harsh terms, saying he was sending Russians to die in "a meat grinder of his own making".

"The Kremlin often claimed it had the second strongest military in the world – and many believed it. Today, many see Russia's military as the second strongest in Ukraine," Blinken said to chuckles from the invited audience.

He mocked critics who said that peace meant to "stop supporting Ukraine" or for Kyiv to "cut its losses and give up the fifth of its territory that Russia illegally occupies".

Blinken vowed to keep building a "military of the future for Ukraine", which has received some US$50 billion in US assistance since the war began.

While proud of Western unity against Putin, US officials have been increasingly uneasy about lukewarm support in the developing world.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has partly blamed the United States for the war, while India – a growing US partner and current head of the Group of 20 – has refused to sever its historic ties with Moscow and instead has taken advantage of bargains on Russian oil.

China has also sent an envoy, a move once met with scepticism by US officials.

Blinken said the US "welcomes any initiative that helps bring President Putin to the table to engage in meaningful diplomacy" but only if it ensured Ukraine's territorial integrity.

"We will support efforts – whether by Brazil, China or any other nation – if they help find a way to a just and lasting peace, consistent with the principles in the UN Charter," he said. (Source: SCMP)

CONCLUSION

The U.S. 2024 presidential election is expected to be an occasion in which the Russia-Ukraine conflict is what Biden and Trump will fight over.

Trump is promising to end the Ukraine war, which is getting unpopular in U.S. and the world. And it looks like that Trump may be able to steal the show from Biden by becoming an opinion leader in this respect.

Therefore, it is advantageous to Biden – if he can end this war which has consumed the U.S. $50 billion in assistance.

This dollar issue was tied to the U.S. debt ceiling in the House which torpedoed Biden's trip to the Pacific Island countries.

Blinken was in Beijing yesterday and the day before. Guess where did he go? He went to London "for a Ukraine reconstruction conference"!

Joe Biden helped to start the proxy Ukraine war. Now he can stop the war, then reconstruct Ukraine. Starting, stopping and reconstructing make him a statesman.

I see the China-initiated-peace coming.

 

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

Read more articles by Augustus K. Yeung:

Opinion | Why Beijing should roll out red carpet for Blinken

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