Opinion | How far can Beijing's mediation go when some believe it's 'mission impossible'
By Augustus K. Yeung
INTRODUCTION
No one expects "the war" to go on forever! Another consensus is that Putin would rather "nuke" than to be seen as "nuts"! The rest is educated guess.
Which country is qualified to mediate? "None but China!" Answered America and its G7 allies.
Who is China's envoy-mediator?
Li Hui, Beijing's special envoy for Eurasian Affairs since 2019, has been tasked with what some believe as "mission impossible".
He is a fluent Russian speaker and spent 10 years as ambassador to Russia. One observer cautions that this does not mean he will be biased towards Moscow.
After the phone call between President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, China's foreign ministry announced that Li would "travel to Ukraine and other countries for in-depth communications with different parties for a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis".
It remains to be seen how far Beijing's mediation can go when neither Moscow nor Kyiv has shown any willingness to back down, although China is keen to play a role in ending a conflict that has had a major impact on global politics, economics and supply chains.
Li's Experience and Russian Language stand him out for the task
Li was promoted to special envoy in 2019. His status as a former deputy foreign minister will give him more weight when communicating Beijing's message, according to Li Lifan, a specialist in Russia and Central Asia at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
"His rank is higher than many Chinese ambassadors in those countries, which gives more weight to the messages and words he can deliver," said the academic.
Li Hui joined the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Department of Soviet and East European Affairs at a time when Beijing and Moscow were close to war. and he has devoted his entire career in handling China's relationship with the Soviet Union and its successor states.
He was made vice-foreign minister in 2008 and sent to Moscow as ambassador a year later, becoming the longest serving ambassador in Moscow.
Significantly, in that time, Xi Jinping made nine official trips to Russia and bilateral trade almost tripled from US$38.8 billion in 2009 to US$107 billion in 2018.
Months before Li's departure, Putin presented him with a friendship medal – for improving relations between the two countries.
Li Lifan said the special envoy's decades-long experience in the Russian-speaking world gave him unique advantages.
"Apparently he has built some connections during those years, allowing him to exchange views with officials – in Kyiv and Moscow and other European capitals," he said.
In 2019, the diplomat told Tass that he admired "the charm and ideas of Pushkin, Lermontov, Gogol, Dostoevsky, Chekov, Tolstoy, Gorky and many others".
"This is something that could resonate with those from former Soviet republics – because of the same language background," Li Lifan said.
"People from the region who are about 40 years old can speak Russian, so Ambassador Li can use the language and the cultural background to better exchange views and explain the positions of different parties."
He also denied that the diplomat would be "pro-Moscow" simply because he spoke Russian. "I can't agree with those who said he is pro-Russian," Li said. "Is learning English always pro-American?" (Source: SCMP)
Entered Borrell whose speech discrepancies irked the Chinese
While Li's credentials should be beyond doubt, an outrage has surfaced.
Joseph Borrell, EU foreign policy chief, was supposed to be visiting Beijing for three days before heading to Hiroshima where he delivered a speech that irritated the Chinese.
He cited Covid-19 infection for skipping his trip to Beijing, but the script of his balanced speech was already received, which severely contradicted his speech released in Hiroshima.
In a speech he would have delivered at the Center for China and Globalization had he visited China, Borrell said, "The primary foundation of our relations should be mutual knowledge and respect …I am not here to give lessons or advice to China. I have too much respect for its independence and sovereignty."
However, the speech he delivered in Hiroshima was described as, "Borrell has played fast and loose with China-related issues on several occasions. He even went to the extent of urging EU member states to send warships to navigate through the Taiwan Strait to 'signify Europe's commitment to freedom of navigation' in this absolutely critical area".
For the Chinese, "It was Borrell's parroting of Washington's line that has rendered his later efforts to repair the damage ineffective."
The latest effort was a statement he made on Friday claiming, "We the Europeans should have our own way of facing China…we should not be against the way of China, and China will become a great power like it or not". (Source: China Daily)
CONCLUSION
The interaction pattern between China and EU needs to be fine-tuned.
After the G7 summit, China accused Joseph Borrell for "provoking Beijing on the Taiwan question… because upholding the one-China principle that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China form the political foundation of Sino-EU relation…" was the editorial comment by China Daily.
"Borrell should know that the Taiwan question is by no means something that the EU should or can pressure Beijing to compel it to use its good relations with Moscow to help end the Ukraine crisis," said the editorial.
The concerted effort is clear. EU and Washington want Beijing to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but Borrell went out of his way to put pressure on Beijing to do Washington's bidding.
That said, a successful mediation may not be "impossible" as China has appointed the right man, and EU and Washington are feeling the pinch of "the war".
Biden's being sincere when he definitively said, "I saw a thaw…"
Who can question the determination of the world's two most powerful presidents when they join force to set "Xi's 12-point plan" in motion? There may be twists and turns.
Ultimately, China's peace initiatives and efforts will not be futile.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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