Opinion | Binding China-Indonesia ties: Best mirror for Marcos of the Philippines

By Augustus K. Yeung

INTRODUCTION

When the US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin visited Indonesia in November, he pressed his counterpart there about a deal to buy 36 American fighter jets.

Did Austin clinch the deal? No!

He may be big-in-size, but his Indonesian counterpart is certainly no small potato: Just days before, the same Indonesian official Prabowo Subianto, had met with China's defense minister, and the two countries had pledged to resume joint military exercises.

Indonesia – located across the southern edge of the South China Sea – is a resource-laden nation with a fast-growing trillion-dollar economy and a large population – a big prize in a geopolitical battle between Washington and Beijing for influence in Asia.

And its strategic location, with about 17,000 islands straddling thousands of miles of vital sea lane, is a defense necessity as Washington and Beijing gear up for a possible conflict over Taiwan.

"They Never, Ever Dictate," Indonesia's Top Official said of the Chinese…

In wooing Indonesia, Beijing increasingly appears to have the edge over the U.S.

China has delivered sizable investments to win over a wary populace in Indonesia, pouring billions of dollars into developing the world's biggest nickel deposits and expediting shipments of Covid-19 vaccines to Indonesia at a critical time. It has been a major partner in the country's infrastructure push, including construction of a high-speed train, although late and over budget.

China invested more than $5 billion in Indonesia in the first nine months of 2022, compared with around $2 billion from the United States.

"They never, ever dictate," Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, the coordinating minister of maritime and investment affairs, said of the Chinese during a recent interview.

He said that American officials often come with a list of onerous conditions before an investment can be approved. "I told Washington about this: 'The way you deal with us, forget it," said Mr. Pandjaitan, who is also chief lieutenant of Indonesia's leader, Joko Widodo.

Indonesia, in turn, has delivered for China: The majority Muslim nation has voted in favor of China's position at the United Nations on Beijing's persecution of Uyghurs, a largely Muslim group; in the halls of the leading regional bloc, ASEAN diplomats say Indonesia is a consistent cheerleader for China's untrammeled economic involvement in all 10 member nations.

Mr. Joko likes to say he remains independent of either country's influence. But he and his top lieutenants have shown a special affinity for China's leader, Xi Jinping.

A month after he came to power in autumn 2014, Mr. Joko traveled to Beijing for his first overseas trip. Since then, he has met President Xi one-on-one eight times, and with former President Donald J. Trump and President Biden on just four occasions, in total.

Indonesia-China Ties are Based on Confluence of Leaders' Political Interests…

Indonesia's affinity for China is based in part on the confluence of their leaders' political interests. From the start of his presidency, Mr. Joko made infrastructure a recurring theme of his tenure, and President Xi had made infrastructure investments a backbone of his diplomatic strategy. During his first visit to Beijing, Mr. Joko was ushered onto the high-speed train from Beijing to Tianjin, a port city, and in October 2015, he signed a multibillion-dollar deal for China to build one in Indonesia.

"China is by far the No. 1 trading partner, No. 1 foreign investor and, before the pandemic, the No. 1 source of international tourists," said Tom Lembong, who was trade and investment minister in the early years of Mr. Joko's tenure. "Many Indonesian business and political elites believe that China is the relevant superpower, and the U.S. is in relative decline – and, geographically, far away."

In less than a decade, China has deepened its ties with Indonesia, in many cases in direct competition with the United States. A Chinese company, Tsingshan, dominates the country's nickel mining, for example, and China is building coal-fired power stations and processing raw nickel into forms suitable for stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries. In doing so, China has answered Mr. Joko's call for additional processing in Indonesia, creating more high-value products for nickel, although with more environmental concerns.

Indonesia, hit hard by the pandemic, also was able to secure early supplies of Chinese-made vaccines. At the time, President Trump had made his "America First" policy clear that Americans, for example, would be vaccinated before American-made vaccines would be exported.

In early December 2020, the first planeload of Sinovac, the Chinese-made vaccine, landed in Indonesia. Television footage of the vaccine's arrival was shown across the country. Indonesian Muslim clerics declared the vaccine halal-certified. (Source: The New York Times)

CONCLUSION

China and Indonesia's relationship is not without challenges: As Washington works to bolster ties in Asia to counter China's influence, Indonesia remains cautious, careful not to anger Beijing.

For example, Indonesia has strongly opposed the U.S. plan to arm its ally, Australia, with nuclear-powered submarines. Indonesian officials have made it clear that they want to have a nuclear-free zone around its territory. Those boats would need to sail through or past Indonesian waters in a battle between the United States and China over Taiwan.

Indonesia's neutrality complicates Washington's expanding efforts in Asia to counter China, said Hugh White, an Australian military strategist.

"Militarily, access to bases in Indonesia would be a big access to U.S. forces in a war over Taiwan, but that's not going to happen," Mr. White said.

Last August, Indonesia's military participated with U.S, forces in a multinational air, land and sea exercise. But while its weapons, many of them from Russia, age, buying replacements from the United States appears unlikely. But last February, Indonesia bought 42 Rafale fighter jets from France.

Weeks after Mr. Austin, the U.S. defense secretary, left in November, Indonesia decided not to buy F-15 fighter jets. White House officials said they were told the cost was too steep, given Indonesia's focus on its domestic agenda.

President Joko Widodo has shown himself a statesman – a mirror-opposite of Philippines' Marcos Jr.

The author is a freelance writer; formerly Adjunct Lecturer, taught MBA Philosophy of Management, and International Strategy, and online columnist of 3-D Corner (HKU SPACE), University of Hong Kong.

 

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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