Opinion | Would China surpass the US in total power?

By Augustus K. Yeung

INTRODUCTION

Amid increasing intense rivalry between China and the United States, the world's two largest super economic powers, one consequential question remains in most people's mind, "Would China surpass the US in total power?" This question was first asked by Professor Joseph Nye, and Lee Kuan Yew's answer was "No."

According to Lee Kuan Yew's logic, "America can source and recombine the world's talents in ways that are simply not possible under China's Han ethnic nationalism."

Lee's logical reasoning is that America is a nation of immigrants, and that immigrants are a continuous source of impetus for its economic growth and intellectual development.

The fact that tens of thousands of Chinese students studying in America and staying there after graduation is support for Lee's argument.

In contrast, China rarely admits foreign talents, and so the world's talent pools are working in America's interest.

But Lee was not able to anticipate or witness China's most recent desperate drive to institute colleges and universities across China, which would make a difference if this project-of-a-life- time is managed exceptionally well. For example, if China can draw top talented scholars from foreign countries and mount an English-language campaign, the tide may turn in China's favor.

For now, let us study Oliveira's article, which can be quite thought provoking.

China's Working-age Population is Expected to Fall to 700 Million…

"The recent news of China's dwindling population has called into question the demographic predictions of the UN and other experts. According to the World Economic Forum, after reaching 925 million in 2011, China's working-age population is expected to fall to 700 million by 2050."

"Unlike many Western countries already in swift transition to a demographic winter, China and other Asian powers (Japan and South Korea) are not using immigration to offset declining birth rates," according to Jorge Costa Oliveira who wrote the article, "Population decline and immigration – in China and other countries." (Source: MDT)

In 2020, the relative rate of immigrants as a percentage of the total population in Japan was 2% and in China, it was only 0.2%. It remains difficult for a foreigner to obtain residency in China and virtually impossible to obtain citizenship.

On the other hand, 17% of people living in Germany in 2021 were born abroad and a third of them had obtained German citizenship.

The Pew Research Center has estimated that by the second half of the century, a third of the US population – more than 100 million people – will be immigrants and their US-born children. And immigrants to the US (and their children) have an even greater economic footprint: 44.6% of the 500 largest US companies were founded by immigrants or their children, from technology giants like Google to the wholesale chain Costco and the jean brand Levi's.

We did not find similar data in Europe but there is no shortage of cases of successful 1st or 2nd generation immigrant entrepreneurs; a good example is the ethnically Turkish couple – Uur ahin and Ozlem Tureci – who created German BioNTech.

Would China Surpass the US in Total Power?

"Prof. Joseph Nye recounts a past conversation with former Singaporean PM (and advisor to several governments in China) Lee Kuan Yew, who is reported to have asked if China would surpass the US in total power; to which Lee is reported to have said no because America can source and recombine the world's talents in ways that are simply not possible under China's Han ethnic nationalism."

"Simultaneously, there is still a large outflow of Chinese emigration. Demographers at the UN estimate that from 2023 to 2100, an average of 310,000 Chinese national will leave China per year, a total of c.24 million people. It is not likely that China can prevent its nationals from leaving in search of a better life in other countries or to join family members."

"Intense internal migration, from rural to urban areas, despite the problems it has created for the hukou (resident permit) system, has created an "industrial reserve army" in urban China that generates a permanent oversupply of unskilled labor.

"However, such migration is winding down and is expected to peak by 2030. Meanwhile, the Chinese government is developing incentives for an increase in the fertility rate, whose success nobody thinks it will be different from similar programs in other countries with declining (and aging) populations.

"Only an active immigration policy can solve or reduce the population decline in China. In times of exaltation of Han ethnic nationalism, strongly encouraged by the authorities, will the Chinese government be able to adopt a policy of attracting immigrants to restore balance in a number of economic sectors?" (Source: MDT)

CONCLUSION

The Western world has been so self-centered that it solely attributes China's rise to American and western influence, a "fact" which Xi Jinping is now trying to refute.

While it is true that Chinese students favor studying in North America and Europe, the Communist Party of China is fully aware of Western decadence, a social fact which China has been monitoring, and has not hesitated to launch social movements to resist this force of corruption that might pollute the young Chinese mind.

In addition, China's new middle class is showing signs of self-fulfillment at home rather than staying abroad in North America and Europe, according to experts' most recent observation.

One most important factor often neglected by foreign critics of China is that they have underestimated the power of the Communist Party of China, which has millions of determined members who would defend the Party to the last drop of their "loyal" blood.

Remember China's Belt and Road Initiative? It's working well in Africa, ASEAN, Eastern Europe, etc. Apart from creating trade and employment opportunities, it is connecting peoples globally.

Given another decade or so, China's "people power" will no doubt surpass that of the US, although its military may lag behind America, whose lethal war-machine/industry is its source of national- revenue.

The author is a freelance writer; formerly Adjunct Lecturer, taught MBA Philosophy of Management, and International Strategy, and online columnist of 3-D Corner (HKU SPACE), University of Hong Kong.

 

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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