Opinion | China's Ukraine diplomatic tightrope
By Tom Fowdy
Last week, marking the anniversary of the war in Ukraine, China released its own 12 point peace plan to resolve the conflict. Although the plan seemed generic for China's diplomatic rhetoric, it notably announced support for the principles of national sovereignty, called for a rescinding of sanctions, and denounced a "Cold War" mentality over the conflict.
While the proposals were in fact quickly welcomed by Ukraine and Zelensky, who offered to even meet Xi Jinping, they were immediately shot down in flames by the United States, as well as Ursula Von Der Leyen of the European Commission, who effectively accused China of siding with Russia. Not long after, the US immediately began to recirculate the lab leak conspiracy theory pertaining to Covid-19, while also circulating baseless rumours that China is about to imminently supply Russia.
China of course, is walking a diplomatic tightrope with the Ukraine conflict, the US knows this. It was after all, just over a year ago now that Xi Jinping met Vladimir Putin and declared a "no-limits" strategic partnership in Beijing. At the time, the growing ties between both countries were obvious, precisely because their diplomatic, economic and strategic objectives all overlapped under the mantra of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". It seemed evident both countries would work together as challengers to US hegemony.
While of course, this partnership was not an "alliance" of any sorts, and China has always been very careful in its diplomatic balancing act, especially in also seeking to court the European Union, one month after that declaration, Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine. The conflict changed the world, and allowed the United States to reassert its leverage over Europe while benefitting wholesale from the reshaping of the international climate to one of ideological confrontation. The US set out to try and systematically isolate Russia, and not predictably thereafter, China was in the firing line.
The US knows fine well that for Beijing, the stakes are high. Although China had embedded itself in a partnership with Russia, it recognized that Beijing does not want to lose market access or face sanctions from US allied countries, which remain critical for its own economic development. The US of course, favours and pursues decoupling actively, and as such has used this to try and drive a wedge between China and Russia in order to break up the partnership between the two, as well of course to undermine Beijing's relationship with Europe.
These considerations, as well as the fact that China's foreign policy doctrine is built on respect for national sovereignty (its fundamental national interest) and what it depicts as opposition to a "Cold War mentality" and "bloc confrontation", has led Beijing to declare an effective neutrality over the conflict, but nonetheless an aversion to condemning Russia. China of course, sympathises with Russia's position, and understands its perspectives in regards to facing growing military encirclement by the US pushed by the expansion of NATO. After all, just before the Ukraine war started, Beijing also expressed public opposition to further NATO expansion.
However, it cannot go as far as supporting the invasion itself, given that such an outcome would place it on the collision course with the west which the US so desires, and threatens global stability as such. Thus, China is pursuing a balancing act, one which incorporates Russia's interests and geopolitical perspectives in the view of opposing US hegemonism in favour of multipolarity, while nonetheless pushing hard to try and keep Europe on board at all costs. The fact that German Chancellor Scholz visited Beijing last November, while following an engagement with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, French President Emmanuel Macron will also soon visit China, shows that there is some meaningful success to be had out of this.
Saying that, while China wants the war to come to an end, nonetheless owing to Russia's decisions, it is not willing to throw Moscow under the bus. China sees the only acceptable outcome is a compromise peace plan, one which incorporates Russia's genuine security interests and finds a negotiated settlement, which while respecting Ukraine's territorial integrity, would end its integration into NATO. It is no surprise that the US has been quick to reject this outcome, as the one it wants is "zero-sum", that is aiming to prolong and push the war as hard as possible with the view of imposing a strategic defeat on Russia that it might be able to cripple them as a strategic competitor, and reassert its hegemony over the European security order with the use of Ukraine, to of course the marginalization of France and Germany. This outcome for Beijing is equally disastrous, as a defeat of Putin's Russia would turn the onus against it instantly.
In this case, it is no surprise that China is looking for a negotiated off-ramp, and to prevent the situation getting any worse. However, as ambitious as such a peace plan may be, it does not seem apparent that either side is truly willing to come to the negotiating table. Ukraine may like the idea of getting territory back under Beijing's plan, but it's ultimately not Kiev who hold the cards to make it stop. The war will continue, and the events of 2023 are likely to be the defining trajectory in what ever path it may take, meaning China's plans aren't about to be considered anytime soon.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
Opinion | The year that changed the world, and the one which will make it
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